Elversberg vs Mainz Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.31
Draw
3.96
Away Win
2.09
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Elversberg
Mainz
4'
🟨 Phillipp Mwene
Felix Keidel ⚽
7'
Francis Onyeka (David Mokwa) ⚽
26'
33'
🟨 Danny da Costa
Maurice Krattenmacher ⚽
45+1'
75'
🟨 Ransford Königsdörffer
85'
🟨 Stefan Posch
Cole Campbell (Nicholas Mickelson) ⚽
90'
90+2'
⚽ Benedict Hollerbach
90+5'
🟥 Stefan Posch
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
13
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
11
8
Fouls
22
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
0
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Elversberg (4-2-3-1)
N. Kristof
L. Sirch
L. Pinckert
M. Rohr
L. Günther
F. Keidel
Ł. Poręba
L. Petkov
Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka
M. Krattenmacher
D. Mokwa
Mainz (3-5-2)
R. Zentner
D. da Costa
S. Posch
K. Potulski
A. Caci
P. Nebel
K. Sano
N. Amiri
P. Mwene
S. Becker
P. Tietz
Player Ratings ?
Elversberg
F. KeidelM8.2
M. KrattenmacherM7.8
Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaM7.6
Mainz
B. HollerbachF7.2
N. AmiriM6.5
P. TietzF6.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Mainz edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Mainz arrive at Elversberg with a perfect record from their last five away fixtures, while the hosts have won just two of their three home outings. Elversberg have scored in all three of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same span. Several players face availability concerns for both sides, with Elversberg having one certain absence and five doubtful names alongside Mainz carrying two definite and two questionable absences. Mainz rate stronger on form, attack and defence. Over the 7-day comparison window, Elversberg's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points, while Mainz's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Elversberg
Elversberg's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Elversberg win as more likely than it did 7 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Mainz remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Elversberg win
Latest market chance 30.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
29.4% → 30.7%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.7% → 24.4%
−0.3 pts
Mainz win
Latest market chance 44.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
45.9% → 44.9%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Elversberg
Draw
Mainz
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ElversbergMainz
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
7th
7
Games Played
7
1.43
Points/Game
1.43
1.71
Goals/Game
2.29
2.14
Conceded/Game
1.86
11.2
Shots/Game
16.0
4.7
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Elversberg at home (5 matches) vs Mainz away (5 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
1.80
3.20
Goals/Game
2.40
1.80
Conceded/Game
2.20
80%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Elversberg
Home form
W
L
W
Won 2 of last 3 at home
Limited history — only 3 home fixtures on record for Elversberg.
2.67
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.33
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/3
Scored in
last 3
last 3
0/3
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Mainz
Away form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Elversberg and Mainz.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Elversbergvs
Mainz
Recent Scoring Profile
1.71
Goals scored / game
2.10
2.14
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/7
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/7
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/7
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.1%→Latest 64.3%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.3%→Latest 65.6%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Elversberg have only 7 completed fixtures on record.
3 of Mainz's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?