Elversberg vs Augsburg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.47
Draw
3.79
Away Win
2.75
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 3
Match Events ?
Elversberg
Augsburg
Lukas Petkov •
4'
Lukas Petkov ⚽
4'
Lasse Günther (Maurice Krattenmacher) ⚽
7'
Maximilian Rohr (Felix Keidel) ⚽
28'
30'
🟨 Han-Noah Massengo
30'
🟨 Rodrigo Ribeiro
45+9'
⚽ (P) Fabian Rieder
52'
🟨 Chrislain Matsima
Felix Keidel 🟨
54'
Lukas Pinckert 🟨
75'
76'
⚽ (P) Michael Gregoritsch
Nicolas Kristof 🟨
84'
Frederik Schmahl (Lukas Petkov) ⚽
89'
90'
⚽ Mert Kömür (Hennes Behrens)
Frederik Schmahl 🟨
90+6'
Noel Futkeu •
90+8'
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
19
Total Shots
29
8
Shots on Goal
8
4
Corner Kicks
12
16
Fouls
14
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Elversberg (4-2-3-1)
N. Kristof
J. Gyamerah
L. Pinckert
M. Rohr
L. Günther
F. Keidel
Ł. Poręba
L. Petkov
Noah Darvich
M. Krattenmacher
D. Mokwa
Augsburg (3-4-2-1)
F. Dahmen
Abdulay Bah
C. Matsima
C. Brackelmann
M. Wolf
H. Massengo
F. Rieder
Hennes Behrens
R. Fellhauer
A. Ibrahimović
Rodrigo Ribeiro
Player Ratings ?
Elversberg
M. RohrD7.7
L. PetkovM7.5
N. KristofG6.8
Augsburg
Hennes BehrensM7.7
M. GregoritschF7.4
F. RiederM7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Elversberg edge defence, Augsburg edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Augsburg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Augsburg stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Elversberg stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Augsburg have secured three away victories in their last five outings, whereas Elversberg have recorded just one win from two home matches. Elversberg have scored in both of their latest home fixtures and have failed to keep a clean sheet at this venue during that same span. The hosts face one confirmed absence and two players under doubt, while Augsburg carry four certain absences alongside two additional doubts ahead of the match. Augsburg rate stronger on form and attack, while Elversberg rate stronger on defence. Over the 14-day comparison window, Elversberg's implied win probability has risen by 4.7 percentage points, while Augsburg's implied win probability has fallen by 4.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Elversberg
Elversberg's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Elversberg win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Elversberg win
Latest market chance 38.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
33.8% → 38.5%
+4.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.4% → 25.3%
−0.1 pts
Augsburg win
Latest market chance 36.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
40.8% → 36.2%
−4.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Elversberg
Draw
Augsburg
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ElversbergAugsburg
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
6th
5
Games Played
5
1.40
Points/Game
1.60
1.60
Goals/Game
2.60
1.60
Conceded/Game
1.60
11.2
Shots/Game
16.9
4.7
Shots on Target
6.7
Home vs Away Context
Elversberg at home (5 matches) vs Augsburg away (4 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
0.75
3.20
Goals/Game
2.75
1.80
Conceded/Game
3.25
80%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Elversberg
Home form
W
L
Won 1 of last 2 at home
Limited history — only 2 home fixtures on record for Elversberg.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/2
Scored in
last 2
last 2
0/2
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Augsburg
Away form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Elversberg and Augsburg.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Elversbergvs
Augsburg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.60
3/5
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
3/5
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/5
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.7%→Latest 65.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 66.7%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Elversberg have only 5 completed fixtures on record.
5 of Augsburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?