Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Allianz Arena
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.22
Draw
8.17
Away Win
10.20
Match Report
Full Time
6 – 1
Match Events ?
Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig
Luis Díaz (Joshua Kimmich) ⚽
12'
Aleksandar Pavlović (Luis Díaz) ⚽
26'
Michael Olise (Harry Kane) ⚽
34'
Luis Díaz (Harry Kane) ⚽
47'
Konrad Laimer 🟨
51'
Harry Kane (Nathaniel Brown) ⚽
53'
Luis Díaz (Michael Olise) ⚽
69'
90+1'
⚽ Andrija Maksimović (Brajan Gruda)
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
29
Total Shots
12
17
Shots on Goal
4
11
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
6
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
11
Starting Lineups
Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1)
J. Urbig
K. Laimer
D. Upamecano
Kim Min-Jae
N. Brown
J. Kimmich
A. Pavlović
M. Olise
I. Saibari
L. Díaz
H. Kane
RB Leipzig (4-5-1)
M. Vandevoordt
L. Klostermann
W. Orbán
C. Lukeba
D. Raum
B. Gruda
R. Reitz
N. El Aynaoui
E. Banzuzi
A. Nusa
C. Nkunku
Player Ratings ?
Bayern Munich
H. KaneF9.8
L. DíazM9.4
M. OliseM8.9
RB Leipzig
M. VandevoordtG7.5
B. GrudaM7.2
A. MaksimoviÄM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Bayern Munich a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bayern Munich arrive at home unbeaten in their last five outings with four victories, whereas RB Leipzig have struggled away from home with just a solitary win to show from their last five matches. The hosts have found the net in all of their last five home games but have managed only one clean sheet during that same period. Bayern Munich face two confirmed absences and one player listed as doubtful, while RB Leipzig must manage without three players who are fully out. Bayern Munich rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Bayern Munich won the most recent meeting 5-1 on 17 January 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to RB Leipzig's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 5.4 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Bayern Munich's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, while RB Leipzig's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Bayern Munich a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a RB Leipzig win as more likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Bayern Munich remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bayern Munich win
Latest market chance 77.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
78.4% → 77.2%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 12.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
13.2% → 12.9%
−0.3 pts
RB Leipzig win
Latest market chance 9.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
8.4% → 9.8%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bayern Munich
Draw
RB Leipzig
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Bayern MunichRB Leipzig
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
5th
5
Games Played
5
2.20
Points/Game
1.80
3.20
Goals/Game
3.00
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.00
23.6
Shots/Game
17.2
9.4
Shots on Target
6.9
Home vs Away Context
Bayern Munich at home (4 matches) vs RB Leipzig away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.75
5.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.75
75%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bayern Munich
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
4.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
RB Leipzig
Away form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bayern Munich Wins
4
Draws
1
RB Leipzig Wins
0
Avg Goals
5.4
RB Leipzig1 – 5Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich6 – 0RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig3 – 3Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich5 – 1RB Leipzig
Bayern Munich2 – 1RB Leipzig
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bayern Munichvs
RB Leipzig
Recent Scoring Profile
3.30
Goals scored / game
2.50
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.60
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 81.2%→Latest 83.3%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 68.8%+7.9 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Bayern Munich's 10 matches and 5 of RB Leipzig's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?