Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Allianz Arena
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.35
Draw
5.68
Away Win
8.40
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Bayern Munich
Dortmund
6'
🟨 Jobe Bellingham
Konrad Laimer ⚽
38'
Josip Stanišić 🟨
53'
Harry Kane •
56'
60'
⚽ Serhou Guirassy (Carney Chukwuemeka)
Dayot Upamecano (Harry Kane) ⚽
66'
Konrad Laimer 🟨
74'
89'
⚽ Fábio Silva (Konstantinos Karetsas)
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
23
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
6
5
Corner Kicks
2
11
Fouls
6
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1)
J. Urbig
K. Laimer
D. Upamecano
Kim Min-Jae
A. Davies
J. Kimmich
A. Pavlović
M. Olise
I. Saibari
S. Gnabry
H. Kane
Dortmund (3-4-2-1)
G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou
W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck
M. Beier
J. Veerman
F. Nmecha
D. Svensson
J. Bellingham
C. Chukwuemeka
S. Guirassy
Player Ratings ?
Bayern Munich
D. UpamecanoD7.4
K. LaimerD7.2
H. KaneF6.8
Dortmund
Fábio SilvaF8.2
S. GuirassyF7.9
N. SchlotterbeckD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bayern Munich edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, Dortmund edge defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bayern Munich slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dortmund slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bayern Munich remain unbeaten in their last five home outings with four wins, while Dortmund have recorded three victories from five away fixtures during that same period. The hosts have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have managed just a single clean sheet within that sequence. Four players are unavailable for Bayern Munich, whereas Dortmund face three confirmed absences alongside one player listed as doubtful. Bayern Munich rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Dortmund hold a slight advantage in defence. Bayern Munich won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 28 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Dortmund's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Bayern Munich's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Dortmund's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Dortmund unbeaten run
47%
Dortmund yellow cards after 75'
13
Bayern Munich points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Bayern Munich win as more likely than it did 8 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bayern Munich win
Latest market chance 71.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
70.5% → 71.3%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
16.5% → 16.4%
−0.1 pts
Dortmund win
Latest market chance 12.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
13.0% → 12.3%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bayern Munich
Draw
Dortmund
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Bayern MunichDortmund
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
2nd
7
Games Played
7
2.43
Points/Game
2.43
3.57
Goals/Game
1.71
0.86
Conceded/Game
0.57
23.6
Shots/Game
15.3
9.4
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Bayern Munich at home (4 matches) vs Dortmund away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
2.00
5.00
Goals/Game
1.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
75%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bayern Munich
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
5.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Dortmund
Away form
L
W
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bayern Munich Wins
2
Draws
2
Dortmund Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
Dortmund2 – 3Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich2 – 1Dortmund
Bayern Munich2 – 2Dortmund
Dortmund1 – 1Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich0 – 2Dortmund
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bayern Munichvs
Dortmund
Recent Scoring Profile
3.40
Goals scored / game
1.90
0.80
Goals conceded / game
0.80
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 77.6%→Latest 75.2%−2.4 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 67.2%→Latest 64.5%−2.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Bayern Munich's 10 matches and 2 of Dortmund's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?