St Pauli vs Nurnberg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.20
Draw
3.68
Away Win
3.30
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
St Pauli
Nurnberg
7'
⚽ (OG) Eric Smith
55'
🟨 Eric Porstner
Abdoulie Ceesay (Arkadiusz Pyrka) ⚽
58'
68'
🟨 Alexios Kalogeropoulos
70'
🟨 Sigurd Haugen
71'
⚽ Sigurd Haugen
Joel Chima Fujita 🟨
78'
80'
🟨 Rafael Lubach
90'
⚽ Marc Kornwachs Barjuan (Eric Porstner)
David Nemeth 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
24
Total Shots
14
7
Shots on Goal
7
4
Corner Kicks
2
16
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
St Pauli (3-4-1-2)
B. Voll
D. Nemeth
E. Smith
L. Ritzka
A. Pyrka
M. Rasmussen
J. Fujita
L. Oppie
C. Metcalfe
B. Hrgota
Abdoulie Ceesay
Nurnberg (4-2-3-1)
J. Reichert
T. Janisch
A. Kalogeropoulos
F. Otto
E. Porstner
A. Marhiev
J. Fernandez
R. Ghrieb
J. Justvan
Rafael Lubach
P. Scobel
Player Ratings ?
St Pauli
Abdoulie CeesayF7.5
A. PyrkaM6.9
Y. NiangF6.7
Nurnberg
J. ReichertG7.9
S. HaugenF7.3
M. Kornwachs BarjuanM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. St Pauli edge defence and head-to-head, Nurnberg edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Nurnberg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Nurnberg stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Nurnberg have secured two wins and three draws in their last five away fixtures, while St Pauli have recorded three victories and a solitary defeat at home during the same period. St Pauli have scored in all five of their recent home outings, yet they have also kept three clean sheets across that identical run of matches. Nurnberg rate stronger on form and attack, while St Pauli rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. St Pauli won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 16 March 2024, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Nurnberg's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St Pauli win
Latest market chance 43.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.9% → 43.4%
−0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.8% → 26.4%
+0.6 pts
Nurnberg win
Latest market chance 30.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.3% → 30.3%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
St Pauli
Draw
Nurnberg
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St PauliNurnberg
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
3rd
9
Games Played
9
1.33
Points/Game
2.00
1.22
Goals/Game
2.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
15.2
Shots/Game
18.8
4.9
Shots on Target
6.8
Home vs Away Context
St Pauli at home (7 matches) vs Nurnberg away (7 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
2.14
1.29
Goals/Game
2.14
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.14
43%
Win Rate
57%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St Pauli
Home form
L
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nurnberg
Away form
D
W
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St Pauli Wins
4
Draws
0
Nurnberg Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
St Pauli1 – 3Nurnberg
Nurnberg0 – 2St Pauli
St Pauli5 – 1Nurnberg
Nurnberg0 – 1St Pauli
St Pauli3 – 2Nurnberg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St Paulivs
Nurnberg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
2.20
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.40
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.2%→Latest 57.0%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.6%→Latest 60.6%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?