St Pauli vs Karlsruhe Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.74
Draw
4.38
Away Win
4.31
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
St Pauli
Karlsruhe
Abdoulie Ceesay (Connor Metcalfe) ⚽
32'
34'
🟨 Sandro Tremoulet
48'
🟨 Marvin Wanitzek
Lars Ritzka (Eric Smith) ⚽
51'
Branimir Hrgota 🟨
87'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
13
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
5
6
Corner Kicks
9
12
Fouls
15
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
St Pauli (4-1-3-2)
B. Voll
A. Pyrka
D. Nemeth
L. Ritzka
L. Oppie
E. Smith
C. Metcalfe
M. Rasmussen
J. Fujita
Y. Niang
Abdoulie Ceesay
Karlsruhe (3-5-2)
H. Bernat
M. Franke
C. Kobald
S. Trémoulet
Rafael Pinto Pedrosa
M. Wanitzek
D. H. Zor
V. Bergh
D. Ofli
S. Fukuda
Louey Ben Farhat
Player Ratings ?
St Pauli
Abdoulie CeesayF8.2
E. SmithM7.7
B. VollG7.5
Karlsruhe
M. FrankeD6.9
H. BernatG6.9
J. PonenteF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. St Pauli edge recent form and defence, attack and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Pauli have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Karlsruhe remain winless in their corresponding away fixtures with two defeats and three draws during that same span. St Pauli have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have kept just two clean sheets across that period. St Pauli rate stronger on form and defence, while attack and head-to-head are closely matched. Karlsruhe won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 6 April 2024, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to St Pauli's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St Pauli win
Latest market chance 55.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
55.0% → 55.1%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.4% → 22.5%
+0.1 pts
Karlsruhe win
Latest market chance 22.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.6% → 22.4%
−0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
St Pauli
Draw
Karlsruhe
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St PauliKarlsruhe
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
17th
6
Games Played
6
1.17
Points/Game
0.83
1.33
Goals/Game
1.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
2.00
15.2
Shots/Game
15.5
4.9
Shots on Target
5.8
Home vs Away Context
St Pauli at home (7 matches) vs Karlsruhe away (7 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
0.29
1.29
Goals/Game
1.00
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.57
43%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St Pauli
Home form
W
D
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Karlsruhe
Away form
L
D
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St Pauli Wins
2
Draws
2
Karlsruhe Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
St Pauli2 – 0Karlsruhe
Karlsruhe2 – 1St Pauli
St Pauli2 – 1Karlsruhe
St Pauli1 – 1Karlsruhe
Karlsruhe4 – 4St Pauli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St Paulivs
Karlsruhe
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.7%→Latest 64.6%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.9%→Latest 63.7%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of St Pauli's 10 matches and 3 of Karlsruhe's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?