Holstein Kiel vs Dresden Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Holstein-Stadion
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.39
Draw
3.89
Away Win
2.79
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Holstein Kiel
Dresden
2'
🟨 Simon Straudi
Giorgi Kvilitaia (Phil Harres) ⚽
9'
Kasper Davidsen 🟨
37'
David Zec 🟨
61'
Leon Parduzi 🟨
62'
63'
• Niklas Hauptmann
Jonas Meffert 🟨
64'
Adrian Kapralik 🟨
66'
Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen ⚽
73'
Phil Harres (Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen) ⚽
85'
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
15
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
10
11
Fouls
5
5
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Holstein Kiel (4-4-2)
T. Weiner
H. Sekine
N. Madsen
D. Zec
Leon Parduzi
A. Kaprálik
J. Meffert
K. Davidsen
G. de Regt
P. Harres
G. Kvilitaia
Dresden (4-2-3-1)
L. Grill
J. Sterner
N. Rapp
F. Muller
S. Straudi
R. Wagner
T. Raschl
P. Čović
N. Hauptmann
B. Bobzien
V. Vermeij
Player Ratings ?
Holstein Kiel
J. TherkelsenM8.2
P. HarresF8.2
T. WeinerG8.1
Dresden
J. SternerD6.9
S. StraudiD6.7
N. RappD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Holstein Kiel edge defence and head-to-head, Dresden edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dresden stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Dresden slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Holstein Kiel slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Holstein Kiel stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Dresden have recorded two draws and three losses in their last five away outings, while Holstein Kiel remain unbeaten at home with five draws from their most recent five matches. At home, Holstein Kiel have scored in three of their last five matches but have kept just two clean sheets during that same span. Dresden rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Holstein Kiel rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Dresden won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 17 May 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Holstein Kiel's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Holstein Kiel's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while Dresden's implied win probability has risen by 2.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
2
Dresden points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Dresden
Dresden's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Dresden win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. Holstein Kiel remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Holstein Kiel win
Latest market chance 40.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
42.9% → 40.8%
−2.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.2% → 25.1%
−0.1 pts
Dresden win
Latest market chance 34.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
31.9% → 34.1%
+2.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Holstein Kiel
Draw
Dresden
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Holstein KielDresden
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
11th
8
Games Played
8
0.63
Points/Game
1.00
0.88
Goals/Game
1.38
1.38
Conceded/Game
1.88
13.6
Shots/Game
12.0
3.5
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Holstein Kiel at home (8 matches) vs Dresden away (8 matches)
1.38
Points/Game
0.25
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
0.88
Conceded/Game
2.62
25%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Holstein Kiel
Home form
D
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Dresden
Away form
L
L
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Holstein Kiel Wins
3
Draws
1
Dresden Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Holstein Kiel3 – 0Dresden
Dresden2 – 1Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel2 – 1Dresden
Dresden0 – 0Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel2 – 1Dresden
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Holstein Kielvs
Dresden
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.80
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
6/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.4%→Latest 59.9%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.6%→Latest 62.5%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?