Holstein Kiel vs Bielefeld Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Holstein-Stadion
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 12:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.54
Draw
3.26
Away Win
2.98
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Holstein Kiel
Bielefeld
14'
⚽ (OG) Hiroki Sekine
29'
🟨 Jannik Rochelt
41'
🟨 Arne Sicker
43'
🟨 Joel Grodowski
57'
🟨 Leon Jensen
Leon Parduzi 🟨
58'
59'
• Joel Grodowski
Jonas Meffert 🟨
65'
Hiroki Sekine (Guillermo Balzi) ⚽
76'
80'
⚽ Isaiah Young (Joel Grodowski)
87'
🟨 Jonas Thomas Kersken
88'
🟨 Leon Schneider
Match Statistics ?
75%
Ball Possession
25%
15
Total Shots
5
4
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
6
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
5
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Holstein Kiel (4-3-3)
T. Weiner
H. Sekine
N. Madsen
S. Schonlau
Leon Parduzi
G. Balzi
J. Meffert
K. Davidsen
G. de Regt
P. Harres
J. Therkelsen
Bielefeld (3-4-2-1)
J. Kersken
M. Bauer
S. Russo
M. Großer
H. Koudossou
L. Jensen
M. Wörl
A. Sicker
M. Momuluh
J. Rochelt
J. Grodowski
Player Ratings ?
Holstein Kiel
G. BalziM7.7
S. SchonlauD7.2
N. MadsenD7.0
Bielefeld
I. YoungF7.6
J. GrodowskiF7.2
M. GroßerD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Holstein Kiel edge defence, Bielefeld edge recent form and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bielefeld stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Holstein Kiel slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bielefeld stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel have enjoyed a perfect run at home with two wins and three draws in their last five outings, while Bielefeld sit on two victories from three defeats away from home over the same span. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have also kept four clean sheets during that identical period. Bielefeld rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Holstein Kiel hold a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 23 January 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Holstein Kiel's implied win probability has fallen by 0.2 percentage points, while Bielefeld's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards the draw
the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Holstein Kiel remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Holstein Kiel win
Latest market chance 38.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.4% → 38.2%
−0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.9% → 28.3%
+1.4 pts
Bielefeld win
Latest market chance 33.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
34.7% → 33.5%
−1.2 pts
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Holstein Kiel
Bielefeld
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
7th
10
Games Played
10
0.80
Points/Game
1.40
1.00
Goals/Game
1.60
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.50
13.6
Shots/Game
12.1
3.5
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Holstein Kiel at home (8 matches) vs Bielefeld away (7 matches)
1.38
Points/Game
1.29
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
0.88
Conceded/Game
1.43
25%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Holstein Kiel
Home form
D
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Bielefeld
Away form
L
L
W
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Holstein Kiel Wins
0
Draws
1
Bielefeld Wins
4
Avg Goals
4.0
2026-01-232025-2026
Bielefeld2 – 2Holstein Kiel
2025-08-102025-2026
Holstein Kiel0 – 2Bielefeld
2023-04-022022-2023
Holstein Kiel2 – 3Bielefeld
2022-09-172022-2023
Bielefeld4 – 2Holstein Kiel
2020-05-302019-2020
Holstein Kiel1 – 2Bielefeld
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Holstein Kiel
vs
Bielefeld
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.70
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.10
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
1/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
7/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
74.2%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
50.3%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
29.6%
BTTSBoth teams score
56.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.4%→Latest 50.6%−6.8 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 56.0%−2.9 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 3 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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