Hannover vs St Pauli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.25
Draw
3.83
Away Win
3.00
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Hannover
St Pauli
Husseyn Chakroun 🟨
8'
Stefán Teitur Thórdarson 🟨
17'
45+1'
⚽ Abdoulie Ceesay (Louis Oppie)
Husseyn Chakroun ⚽
48'
90+2'
🟨 Joel Chima Fujita
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
13
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
6
3
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Hannover (4-4-2)
L. Weinkauf
V. Ghiță
B. Tomiak
J. Hugonet
M. Neubauer
H. Chakroun
W. Taïbi
S. Þórðarson
K. Oudenne
B. Källman
M. Hartel
St Pauli (3-4-2-1)
B. Voll
D. Nemeth
E. Smith
L. Ritzka
A. Pyrka
M. Rasmussen
J. Fujita
L. Oppie
Y. Niang
C. Metcalfe
Abdoulie Ceesay
Player Ratings ?
Hannover
L. WeinkaufG7.4
J. HugonetD7.3
B. TomiakD7.2
St Pauli
Abdoulie CeesayF7.8
L. OppieM7.3
D. NemethD7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hannover edge attack, St Pauli edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hannover slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Pauli have recorded a single victory and three draws across their last five away fixtures, while Hannover have also managed just one win from their most recent five home outings. Hannover have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. St Pauli rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Hannover hold a slight advantage in attack. St Pauli won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 21 April 2024, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Hannover's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Hannover's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points, while St Pauli's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Hannover
Hannover's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hannover win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hannover win
Latest market chance 42.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
45.3% → 42.8%
−2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.2% → 25.3%
+1.1 pts
St Pauli win
Latest market chance 31.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
30.5% → 31.9%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hannover
Draw
St Pauli
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HannoverSt Pauli
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
7th
7
Games Played
7
1.00
Points/Game
1.43
1.00
Goals/Game
1.43
1.71
Conceded/Game
1.14
16.2
Shots/Game
15.2
5.4
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Hannover at home (6 matches) vs St Pauli away (8 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
0.75
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.75
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hannover
Home form
D
D
L
D
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Pauli
Away form
L
W
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hannover Wins
1
Draws
2
St Pauli Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Hannover1 – 2St Pauli
St Pauli0 – 0Hannover
St Pauli2 – 0Hannover
Hannover2 – 2St Pauli
St Pauli0 – 3Hannover
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hannovervs
St Pauli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.1%→Latest 61.2%−2.9 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.7%→Latest 63.8%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Hannover's 10 matches and 2 of St Pauli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?