Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.64
Draw
3.80
Away Win
2.56
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Greuther Furth
Holstein Kiel
22'
🟨 Kasper Davidsen
73'
🟨 Giorgi Kvilitaia
Aaron Keller (Dennis Srbeny) ⚽
87'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
10
Total Shots
14
2
Shots on Goal
4
9
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
11
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Greuther Furth (4-2-3-1)
Florian Hellstern
J. Dehm
J. Heuer
Hendry Aron Blank
G. Itter
S. Bansé
P. Will
F. Klaus
S. Appelkamp
Ole Pohlmann
O. Sillah
Holstein Kiel (4-4-2)
T. Weiner
H. Sekine
N. Madsen
I. Nekić
Leon Parduzi
A. Kaprálik
J. Meffert
K. Davidsen
J. Therkelsen
G. Kvilitaia
P. Harres
Player Ratings ?
Greuther Furth
A. KellerM7.7
Florian HellsternG7.4
J. HeuerD7.2
Holstein Kiel
A. KaprálikM7.0
G. BalziM6.9
I. NekićD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Greuther Furth edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, Holstein Kiel edge defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Greuther Furth stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Greuther Furth stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Holstein Kiel slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Greuther Furth slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel have managed just a solitary draw from their last five away outings, whereas Greuther Furth have secured two victories in their corresponding home sample. Greuther Furth have found the net in four of their last five home matches while managing to keep a clean sheet in two of that same period. Greuther Furth rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while Holstein Kiel hold a slight advantage in defence. Greuther Furth won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 31 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Holstein Kiel's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Greuther Furth's implied win probability has fallen by 4.0 percentage points, while Holstein Kiel's implied win probability has risen by 3.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Holstein Kiel points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Greuther Furth
Greuther Furth's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Greuther Furth win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Holstein Kiel remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Greuther Furth win
Latest market chance 36.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
40.9% → 36.9%
−4.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.9% → 25.7%
+0.8 pts
Holstein Kiel win
Latest market chance 37.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
34.2% → 37.4%
+3.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Greuther Furth
Draw
Holstein Kiel
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Greuther FurthHolstein Kiel
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
16th
9
Games Played
9
1.00
Points/Game
0.89
1.33
Goals/Game
1.11
1.78
Conceded/Game
1.22
14.3
Shots/Game
13.6
4.6
Shots on Target
3.5
Home vs Away Context
Greuther Furth at home (6 matches) vs Holstein Kiel away (7 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
0.14
1.17
Goals/Game
0.29
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.29
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Greuther Furth
Home form
L
L
D
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Holstein Kiel
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
0.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
0/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Greuther Furth Wins
3
Draws
0
Holstein Kiel Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Greuther Furth1 – 0Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel1 – 2Greuther Furth
Greuther Furth0 – 2Holstein Kiel
Greuther Furth2 – 1Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel2 – 1Greuther Furth
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Greuther Furthvs
Holstein Kiel
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.60
Goals conceded / game
0.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
3/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.3%→Latest 60.3%−3.0 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.9%→Latest 63.9%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?