Dresden vs Magdeburg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Rudolf-Harbig Stadion
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.58
Draw
3.62
Away Win
2.70
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Dresden
Magdeburg
Niklas Hauptmann ⚽ (P)
9'
Simon Straudi ⚽
50'
Ahmet Muhamedbegovic 🟨
85'
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
12
Total Shots
14
6
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
0
8
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Dresden (4-2-3-1)
L. Grill
J. Sterner
N. Rapp
F. Muller
S. Straudi
T. Raschl
P. Čović
R. Wagner
N. Hauptmann
B. Bobzien
V. Vermeij
Magdeburg (4-3-3)
D. Reimann
H. Bockhorn
T. Müller
A. MacNulty
P. Nadjombe
T. Müsel
L. Hyryläinen
M. Kwarteng
E. Iyoha
M. Żukowski
B. Atik
Player Ratings ?
Dresden
S. StraudiD8.0
J. SternerD7.8
L. GrillG7.4
Magdeburg
A. MacNultyD7.2
D. ReimannG7.1
L. HyryläinenM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Magdeburg
Magdeburg rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Dresden edge head-to-head, giving Magdeburg a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Magdeburg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Magdeburg stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Magdeburg stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dresden slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Magdeburg have recorded two wins alongside a draw and two defeats in their last five away outings, while Dresden sit on three victories from their last five home fixtures despite conceding twice in that span. Dresden have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have kept two clean sheets during that same period. Magdeburg rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Dresden hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Dresden won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 24 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 4 encounters to Magdeburg's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Dresden's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Magdeburg's implied win probability has risen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Magdeburg a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards the draw
the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Dresden remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dresden win
Latest market chance 37.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.2% → 37.7%
−0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.6% → 26.4%
+0.8 pts
Magdeburg win
Latest market chance 35.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
36.2% → 35.9%
−0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Dresden
Draw
Magdeburg
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DresdenMagdeburg
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
6th
7
Games Played
7
0.71
Points/Game
1.86
1.29
Goals/Game
2.00
2.14
Conceded/Game
1.29
12.0
Shots/Game
14.5
4.2
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Dresden at home (7 matches) vs Magdeburg away (6 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
0.83
1.86
Goals/Game
1.00
0.57
Conceded/Game
1.33
71%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dresden
Home form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Magdeburg
Away form
W
W
L
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dresden Wins
2
Draws
2
Magdeburg Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Dresden2 – 0Magdeburg
Magdeburg1 – 2Dresden
Dresden1 – 2Magdeburg
Dresden1 – 1Magdeburg
Magdeburg2 – 2Dresden
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dresdenvs
Magdeburg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.2%→Latest 60.3%−2.9 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.9%→Latest 63.7%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Dresden's 10 matches and 2 of Magdeburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?