Darmstadt vs St Pauli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.44
Draw
3.60
Away Win
2.15
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Darmstadt
St Pauli
7'
🟨 Arkadiusz Pyrka
26'
🟨 Abdoulie Ceesay
Raoul Petretta 🟨
26'
Kai Klefisch 🟨
56'
65'
🟨 Adam Dźwigała
83'
🟨 Eric Smith
William Mikelbrencis 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
36%
Ball Possession
64%
12
Total Shots
18
0
Shots on Goal
2
2
Corner Kicks
6
13
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Darmstadt (4-4-2)
M. Schuhen
W. Mikelbrencis
P. Pfeiffer
Y. Lührs
R. Petretta
M. Richter
K. Klefisch
H. Akiyama
N. Weißhaupt
F. Lakenmacher
M. Smit
St Pauli (3-4-1-2)
B. Voll
D. Nemeth
E. Smith
L. Ritzka
A. Pyrka
M. Rasmussen
J. Fujita
L. Oppie
C. Metcalfe
Y. Niang
Abdoulie Ceesay
Player Ratings ?
Darmstadt
N. WeißhauptM7.1
P. PfeifferD7.0
H. AkiyamaM6.9
St Pauli
C. MetcalfeM7.2
D. NemethD7.2
M. RasmussenM7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
St Pauli
St Pauli rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving St Pauli a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St Pauli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Pauli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Pauli have recorded an impressive unbeaten run in their last five away outings with just one victory and four draws, while Darmstadt have found consistency elusive at home with two wins, a draw, and two defeats in that same span. Darmstadt have managed to score in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that period. St Pauli rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head. St Pauli won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 6 May 2023, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Darmstadt's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Darmstadt's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while St Pauli's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives St Pauli a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards St Pauli
St Pauli's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a St Pauli win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Darmstadt win
Latest market chance 30.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
31.5% → 30.5%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.7% → 26.8%
−0.9 pts
St Pauli win
Latest market chance 42.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
40.8% → 42.7%
+1.9 pts
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DarmstadtSt Pauli
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
7th
8
Games Played
8
0.88
Points/Game
1.38
1.00
Goals/Game
1.38
2.25
Conceded/Game
1.12
11.8
Shots/Game
15.2
2.8
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Darmstadt at home (7 matches) vs St Pauli away (8 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
0.75
1.14
Goals/Game
1.00
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.75
29%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Darmstadt
Home form
L
D
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Pauli
Away form
W
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Darmstadt Wins
2
Draws
1
St Pauli Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.4
Darmstadt0 – 3St Pauli
St Pauli1 – 1Darmstadt
St Pauli1 – 2Darmstadt
Darmstadt4 – 0St Pauli
St Pauli3 – 2Darmstadt
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Darmstadtvs
St Pauli
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.50
2.40
Goals conceded / game
1.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
6/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 56.3%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 59.2%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Darmstadt's 10 matches and 1 of St Pauli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?