Cottbus vs Nurnberg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadion der Freundschaft
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.22
Draw
4.18
Away Win
2.05
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Cottbus
Nurnberg
34'
🟨 Adam Markhiev
Henry Rorig 🟨
45+1'
Justin Butler (Leonardo Bittencourt) ⚽
56'
61'
🟨 Alexios Kalogeropoulos
Tolcay Cigerci 🟨
68'
79'
⚽ Styopa Mkrtchyan (Eric Porstner)
Christian Kinsombi 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
14
Total Shots
19
5
Shots on Goal
5
2
Corner Kicks
8
9
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Cottbus (4-2-3-1)
M. Lotka
H. Rorig
K. Manu
Luca Erlein
L. Guwara
L. Bittencourt
Lukas Michelbrink
T. Ciğerci
L. Copado
M. Hannemann
J. Butler
Nurnberg (4-2-3-1)
J. Reichert
T. Janisch
A. Kalogeropoulos
F. Otto
E. Porstner
A. Marhiev
J. Fernandez
R. Ghrieb
J. Justvan
M. Zoma
P. Scobel
Player Ratings ?
Cottbus
L. BittencourtM7.7
J. ButlerF7.3
Luca ErleinD7.2
Nurnberg
S. MkrtchyanD8.0
J. ReichertG7.4
F. OttoD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Nurnberg
Nurnberg rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Nurnberg a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Nurnberg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Nurnberg stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Nurnberg stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Nurnberg stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Nurnberg arrive with an impressive away record of two wins and three draws from their last five outings, whereas Cottbus have recorded just one victory alongside two defeats in that same span at home. At home, Cottbus have found the net in four of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. Nurnberg rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2008. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Nurnberg a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cottbus win
Latest market chance 30.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.0% → 30.2%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.5% → 23.4%
−0.1 pts
Nurnberg win
Latest market chance 46.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
46.4% → 46.5%
+0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cottbus
Draw
Nurnberg
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CottbusNurnberg
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
2nd
7
Games Played
7
1.14
Points/Game
2.43
2.14
Goals/Game
2.86
2.29
Conceded/Game
1.43
14.5
Shots/Game
18.8
5.0
Shots on Target
6.8
Home vs Away Context
Cottbus at home (7 matches) vs Nurnberg away (7 matches)
0.86
Points/Game
2.14
1.57
Goals/Game
2.14
1.71
Conceded/Game
1.14
14%
Win Rate
57%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cottbus
Home form
D
L
W
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nurnberg
Away form
D
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cottbus Wins
0
Draws
3
Nurnberg Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Nurnberg1 – 1Cottbus
Cottbus1 – 1Nurnberg
Nurnberg1 – 0Cottbus
Cottbus1 – 1Nurnberg
Cottbus1 – 3Nurnberg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cottbusvs
Nurnberg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.70
2.70
Goals conceded / game
1.40
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.0%→Latest 69.6%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 68.1%→Latest 70.1%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Cottbus's 10 matches and 3 of Nurnberg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?