Vitoria vs Fluminense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Barradao
Fri 06 Nov 2026 · 23:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.87
Draw
3.35
Away Win
2.58
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Vitoria
Fluminense
15'
⚽ J. Savarino (A. Canobbio)
42'
⚽ A. Canobbio (Nonato)
Matheusinho 🟨
44'
Lucas Silva 🟨
88'
90'
⚽ R. Castillo (Nonato)
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
11
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Goal
7
9
Corner Kicks
6
13
Fouls
19
2
Yellow Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Vitoria (4-1-4-1)
Lucas Arcanjo
Mateusinho
Cacá
Luan Cândido
Jamerson
Caique Gonçalves
Erick
Gabriel Baralhas
Emmanuel Martínez
Matheuzinho
Renê Sousa
Fluminense (4-2-3-1)
Fábio
Guga
Thiago Silva
Juan Pablo Freytes
Renê
Hércules
Nonato
Agustín Canobbio
Luciano Acosta
Jefferson Savarino
Hulk
Player Ratings ?
Vitoria
ErickM7.5
JamersonD7.2
Renê SousaF7.2
Fluminense
Agustín CanobbioM9.3
Rodrigo CastilloF8.5
HulkF8.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Fluminense edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Fluminense stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Fluminense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Fluminense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
While Vitoria have secured two wins in their last five home outings, Fluminense have recorded just a single victory across their last five away fixtures. Vitoria have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have only managed two clean sheets during that same recent run. Both squads carry selection concerns ahead of kickoff, with Vitoria having eight players unavailable and Fluminense fielding five absentees for this BR1 clash. Fluminense rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 9 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Vitoria's implied win probability has risen by 3.0 percentage points, while Fluminense's implied win probability has fallen by 2.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Vitoria losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Vitoria
Vitoria's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Vitoria win as more likely than it did 8 days ago. Fluminense remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Vitoria win
Latest market chance 34.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
31.3% → 34.3%
+3.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.5% → 28.5%
±0.0 pts
Fluminense win
Latest market chance 37.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
40.2% → 37.3%
−2.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Vitoria
Draw
Fluminense
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
VitoriaFluminense
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
4th
33
Games Played
33
1.15
Points/Game
1.64
1.06
Goals/Game
1.58
1.45
Conceded/Game
1.27
11.8
Shots/Game
14.6
4.2
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away Context
Vitoria at home (17 matches) vs Fluminense away (17 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
1.06
1.35
Goals/Game
1.41
0.94
Conceded/Game
1.47
59%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Vitoria
Home form
L
W
L
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Fluminense
Away form
D
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Vitoria Wins
2
Draws
2
Fluminense Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Fluminense2 – 2Vitoria
Vitoria0 – 1Fluminense
Fluminense1 – 1Vitoria
Vitoria2 – 1Fluminense
Fluminense0 – 1Vitoria
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Vitoriavs
Fluminense
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.2%→Latest 46.7%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 52.7%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Vitoria's 10 matches and 5 of Fluminense's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?