Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Manoel Barradas
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.60
Draw
3.36
Away Win
2.82
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense
14'
🟨 Jadson Alves dos Santos
23'
⚽ (OG) Jamerson
Renato Kayzer (Emanuel Brítez) ⚽
29'
Diego Tarzia 🟨
41'
42'
🟨 Luiz Gustavo
45+4'
🟨 Bruno Gonçalves Baldini
90+1'
🟨 Gilberto
Marinho 🟥
90+5'
Luan Cândido 🟨
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
11
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
0
3
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
19
2
Yellow Cards
4
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Vitoria (4-2-3-1)
Lucas Arcanjo
Mateusinho
E. Brítez
Luan Cândido
Jamerson
E. Martínez
Caíque
Erick
Matheuzinho
D. Tarzia
Renato Kayzer
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
Mycael
Bruno Gonçalves Baldini
J. Aguirre
L. Esquivel
Gilberto
Jádson
Luiz Gustavo
S. Mendoza
Leozinho
João Cruz
K. Viveros
Player Ratings ?
Vitoria
Renato KayzerF8.0
MateusinhoD7.5
E. BrítezD7.0
Atletico Paranaense
L. EsquivelD7.0
J. AguirreD6.8
MycaelG6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Vitoria edge defence, Atletico Paranaense edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atletico Paranaense stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Vitoria stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atletico Paranaense stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Vitoria have secured three wins from their last five home outings, while Atletico Paranaense have recorded three victories in their corresponding away fixtures over the same span. The host side have found the net in four of their last five matches at this venue but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Vitoria face eight players unavailable for selection, whereas Atletico Paranaense have four out and one player listed as doubtful ahead of the match. Atletico Paranaense rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Vitoria rate stronger on defence. Atletico Paranaense won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 26 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Vitoria's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 7-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Atletico Paranaense unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 7 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Vitoria win
Latest market chance 37.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
36.3% → 37.0%
+0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.2%
−0.2 pts
Atletico Paranaense win
Latest market chance 34.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
35.3% → 34.7%
−0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Vitoria
Draw
Atletico Paranaense
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
VitoriaAtletico Paranaense
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
3rd
31
Games Played
31
1.19
Points/Game
1.71
1.10
Goals/Game
1.58
1.45
Conceded/Game
1.19
11.8
Shots/Game
13.3
4.2
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Vitoria at home (17 matches) vs Atletico Paranaense away (17 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
1.29
1.35
Goals/Game
1.35
0.94
Conceded/Game
1.47
59%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Vitoria
Home form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atletico Paranaense
Away form
W
W
L
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Vitoria Wins
1
Draws
0
Atletico Paranaense Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
Atletico Paranaense3 – 1Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense1 – 2Vitoria
Vitoria0 – 1Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria1 – 2Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense4 – 0Vitoria
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Vitoriavs
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.5%→Latest 49.1%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 54.7%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Vitoria's 10 matches and 3 of Atletico Paranaense's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?