Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

São Januário
Thu 19 Nov 2026 · 22:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.69
Draw
3.92
Away Win
5.10
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Vasco DA Gama edge recent form, attack and defence, Internacional edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Vasco DA Gama slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Internacional stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Internacional arrives at this BR1 fixture with a mixed away record in their last five outings, managing just one win and one draw against three defeats, whereas Vasco DA Gama look more assured at home having secured three victories from their last five matches. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home games but have also kept two clean sheets in that same period. Vasco DA Gama rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Internacional rate stronger on head-to-head. Internacional won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 16 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Vasco DA Gama's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Vasco DA Gama's implied win probability has risen by 4.5 percentage points, while Internacional's implied win probability has fallen by 3.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Vasco DA Gama
No current absences reported
Internacional
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Vasco DA Gama win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Vasco DA Gama win
Latest market chance 56.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
52.4% → 56.9%
+4.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.4% → 24.5%
−0.9 pts
Internacional win
Latest market chance 18.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
22.2% → 18.6%
−3.6 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
9 snapshots
+4.5+2.250−2.25Nov 5Nov 7Nov 9Nov 11Nov 13
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Vasco DA Gama
Draw
Internacional
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
15th
33
Games Played
34
1.24
Points/Game
1.12
1.30
Goals/Game
1.12
1.52
Conceded/Game
1.24
17.4
Shots/Game
14.8
5.2
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Vasco DA Gama at home (17 matches) vs Internacional away (17 matches)
1.59
Points/Game
0.88
1.47
Goals/Game
0.94
1.41
Conceded/Game
1.47
47%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Vasco DA Gama
Home form
W
W
D
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Internacional
Away form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Vasco DA Gama Wins
2
Draws
1
Internacional Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.4
2026-05-162026
Internacional4 – 1Vasco DA Gama
2025-11-282025
Vasco DA Gama5 – 1Internacional
2025-07-272025
Internacional1 – 1Vasco DA Gama
2024-11-212024
Vasco DA Gama0 – 1Internacional
2024-07-072024
Internacional1 – 2Vasco DA Gama
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Vasco DA Gama
vs
Internacional
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.40
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
75.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
52.6%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
31.9%
BTTSBoth teams score
52.5%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 52.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 17 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.2%→Latest 52.7%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Nov 2Nov 5Nov 8Nov 10Nov 13
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 17 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of Vasco DA Gama's 10 matches and 6 of Internacional's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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