Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Head to Head | Brazil Serie A

Match Report

Full Time

1 – 4

Match Events

Vasco DA Gama

Flamengo

10'

⚽ Pedro (G. Varela)

A. Lescano (Brenner) ⚽

15'

41'

⚽ Pedro

45+5'

🟨 G. Plata

53'

⚽ Samuel Lino

85'

⚽ Samuel Lino

86'

🟨 Samuel Lino

Match Statistics

56%

Ball Possession

44%

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Offsides

Goalkeeper Saves

Starting Lineups

Vasco DA Gama (4-1-4-1)

Léo Jardim

Puma Rodríguez

Gabriel Pereira

Lucas Freitas

Cuiabano

Jair

Marino Hinestroza

Alan Lescano

Thiago Mendes

Facundo Colidio

Brenner

Flamengo (4-2-3-1)

Agustín Rossi

Guillermo Varela

Léo Ortiz

Léo Pereira

Emerson Royal

Jorginho

Erick Pulgar

Gonzalo Plata

Giorgian de Arrascaeta

Samuel Lino

Pedro Guilherme

Player Ratings

Vasco DA Gama

Alan LescanoM7.9

JairM7.7

BrennerF7.0

Flamengo

Samuel LinoM8.3

Pedro GuilhermeF8.0

Léo OrtizD7.9

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

No clear statistical edge

The matchup is mixed. Flamengo edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Flamengo stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Closely matched

HomeAway

Defence

Flamengo slightly stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Flamengo slightly stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Vasco DA Gama have secured three wins from their last five home outings, while Flamengo have recorded three victories in their last five away fixtures. At home, Vasco DA Gama have scored in three of their last five matches but kept just two clean sheets during that same period. Vasco DA Gama face availability concerns with three players out and one doubtful, whereas Flamengo have two players unavailable but no doubts remaining for their squad. Flamengo rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, ended level, with 4 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Vasco DA Gama's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while Flamengo's implied win probability has risen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Strong shift towards Flamengo

Flamengo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Flamengo win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.

Movement strength: Strong

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Vasco DA Gama win

Latest market chance 23.8%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

25.9% → 23.8%

−2.1 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 25.4%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

26.9% → 25.4%

−1.5 pts

Flamengo win

Latest market chance 50.8%

Strong shortening

Market chance increased

47.1% → 50.8%

+3.7 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

10 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Vasco DA Gama

Draw

Flamengo

6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Vasco DA Gama

Flamengo

Season Profile

This season

13th

League Position

1st

Games Played

1.23

Points/Game

2.19

1.26

Goals/Game

2.00

1.45

Conceded/Game

0.84

17.4

Shots/Game

16.1

5.2

Shots on Target

5.9

Home vs Away Context

Vasco DA Gama at home (17 matches) vs Flamengo away (17 matches)

1.59

Points/Game

2.00

1.47

Goals/Game

2.12

1.41

Conceded/Game

0.94

47%

Win Rate

59%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Vasco DA Gama

Home form

Won 3 of last 5 at home

2.2

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

3/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Flamengo

Away form

Won 3 of last 5 away

2.4

Goals scored
per match

1.0

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Vasco DA Gama Wins

Draws

Flamengo Wins

Avg Goals

3.0

2026-05-032026

Flamengo2 – 2Vasco DA Gama

2025-09-212025

Flamengo1 – 1Vasco DA Gama

2025-04-192025

Vasco DA Gama0 – 0Flamengo

2024-09-152024

Flamengo1 – 1Vasco DA Gama

2024-06-022024

Vasco DA Gama1 – 6Flamengo

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Vasco DA Gama

Flamengo

Recent Scoring Profile

1.60

Goals scored / game

2.00

1.40

Goals conceded / game

0.80

7/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

7/10

5/10

Both Teams Scored

5/10

4/10

Failed to Score

0/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

75.7%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

52.6%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

32.1%

BTTSBoth teams score

54.9%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 51.1%→Latest 52.7%+1.6 pts

Notable move towards 3+ goals

An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.

3 common bookmakers · first comparable 9 days before kickoff

The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 54.7%→Latest 54.7%±0.0 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 9 days before kickoff

Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.

4 of Vasco DA Gama's 10 matches and 4 of Flamengo's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis