Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
São Januário
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.68
Draw
3.91
Away Win
4.96
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
31'
🟨 Rodrigo Garro
Jose Luis Rodriguez ⚽
35'
50'
⚽ Gustavo Henrique (Breno Bidon)
57'
⚽ Matheus Bidu (Fabrizio Angileri)
85'
🟨 Fabrizio Angileri
Marino Hinestroza ⚽
88'
Marino Hinestroza (David) ⚽
90'
Marino Hinestroza 🟨
90+2'
90+6'
🟨 Jesse Lingard
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
25
Total Shots
12
8
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Vasco DA Gama (4-2-3-1)
Léo Jardim
J. Rodríguez
A. Saldivia
Robert Renan
Cuiabano
A. Lescano
S. Sosa
A. Gómez
Thiago Mendes
F. Colidio
Bruno Duarte
Corinthians (4-2-3-1)
Hugo Souza
Matheuzinho
André Ramalho
Gustavo Henrique
F. Angileri
Andre
Breno
Dieguinho
R. Garro
Matheus Bidu
Yuri Alberto
Player Ratings ?
Vasco DA Gama
M. HinestrozaF9.6
J. RodríguezD7.4
DavidF6.9
Corinthians
Matheus BiduM7.2
Gustavo HenriqueD6.9
Hugo SouzaG6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Corinthians edge head-to-head, giving Vasco DA Gama a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Corinthians stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Corinthians have struggled on the road with just a solitary win from their last five away outings, while Vasco DA Gama look steadier at home having secured two victories and two draws in their recent five fixtures. At home, Vasco DA Gama have found the net in three of their last five matches but have also managed to keep a clean sheet on two occasions during that same period. Both sides face similar selection headaches with Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians each carrying three players unavailable for selection ahead of this BR1 clash. Vasco DA Gama rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Corinthians rate stronger on head-to-head. Corinthians won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 26 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Vasco DA Gama's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Vasco DA Gama's implied win probability has risen by 3.8 percentage points, while Corinthians's implied win probability has fallen by 2.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Vasco DA Gama a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
8
Corinthians losing run
3
Corinthians points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Vasco DA Gama win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Vasco DA Gama win
Latest market chance 56.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
52.2% → 56.0%
+3.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.3% → 25.1%
−1.2 pts
Corinthians win
Latest market chance 18.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
21.5% → 18.8%
−2.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Vasco DA Gama
Draw
Corinthians
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Vasco DA GamaCorinthians
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
16th
30
Games Played
31
1.17
Points/Game
1.06
1.20
Goals/Game
1.03
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.26
17.4
Shots/Game
13.6
5.2
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Vasco DA Gama at home (17 matches) vs Corinthians away (17 matches)
1.59
Points/Game
0.88
1.47
Goals/Game
1.06
1.41
Conceded/Game
1.47
47%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Vasco DA Gama
Home form
D
L
W
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Corinthians
Away form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Vasco DA Gama Wins
1
Draws
0
Corinthians Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
Corinthians1 – 0Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama2 – 3Corinthians
Corinthians3 – 0Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians3 – 1Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama2 – 0Corinthians
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Vasco DA Gamavs
Corinthians
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.90
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 48.4%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 49.7%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Vasco DA Gama's 10 matches and 3 of Corinthians's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?