Sao Paulo vs Vitoria Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Morumbi
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 01:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.66
Draw
3.91
Away Win
5.44
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
16'
🟨 Matheuzinho
16'
🟨 Cacá
Jonathan Calleri (Iago Amaral Borduchi) ⚽
20'
Gustavo Santana 🟨
24'
39'
⚽ Emmanuel Martínez (Erick)
Djhordney Ferreira 🟨
44'
Jonathan Calleri ⚽
70'
Jose Monteiro 🟨
77'
Iago Amaral Borduchi 🟨
78'
86'
🟨 Renato Kayzer
Marcos Antonio 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
21
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
2
13
Fouls
13
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Sao Paulo (3-4-2-1)
Rafael
Newton
R. Arboleda
Sabino
Lucas Ramon
D. Bobadilla
D. Ferreira
Iago
Artur
G. Santana
J. Calleri
Vitoria (4-1-4-1)
Lucas Arcanjo
Mateusinho
Cacá
Luan Cândido
Jamerson
Caíque
Erick
E. Martínez
Matheuzinho
Lucas Silva
Rene
Player Ratings ?
Sao Paulo
J. CalleriF9.4
D. BobadillaM7.2
ArturM7.1
Vitoria
E. MartínezM8.0
ErickM7.0
MateusinhoD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sao Paulo edge defence, Vitoria edge head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Sao Paulo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Vitoria stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Vitoria arrive at this fixture with a difficult run of form on the road, having recorded just two draws and three defeats in their last five away outings, while Sao Paulo look more assured at home where they have secured three victories and one draw from their most recent five matches. Sao Paulo have found the net in all five of their home matches within this recent sequence, though they have managed to keep a clean sheet on only two occasions during that same stretch. Both squads carry significant injury concerns ahead of the match, with Sao Paulo facing seven confirmed absences and two players in doubt, while Vitoria have eight confirmed out and one player listed as doubtful. Sao Paulo rate stronger on defence, while Vitoria rate stronger on head-to-head, while form and attack are closely matched. Vitoria won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 11 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Sao Paulo's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Sao Paulo unbeaten run
2
Vitoria points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 2 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sao Paulo win
Latest market chance 57.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
57.6% → 57.6%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.6% → 24.7%
+0.1 pts
Vitoria win
Latest market chance 17.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
17.7% → 17.8%
+0.1 pts
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sao PauloVitoria

Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
12th
29
Games Played
29
1.24
Points/Game
1.24
1.14
Goals/Game
1.10
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.45
13.6
Shots/Game
11.8
4.2
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Sao Paulo at home (17 matches) vs Vitoria away (18 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.33
1.47
Goals/Game
0.67
0.76
Conceded/Game
2.06
59%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Sao Paulo
Home form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Vitoria
Away form
D
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sao Paulo Wins
3
Draws
0
Vitoria Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Vitoria2 – 0Sao Paulo
Vitoria1 – 0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2 – 0Vitoria
Sao Paulo2 – 1Vitoria
Vitoria1 – 3Sao Paulo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sao Paulovs
Vitoria

Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.70
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.6%→Latest 48.5%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.0%→Latest 48.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Sao Paulo's 10 matches and 1 of Vitoria's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?