Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Head to Head | Brazil Serie A

Match Prediction

No clear statistical edge

The matchup is mixed. Sao Paulo edge defence, Fluminense edge attack and head-to-head, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Closely matched

HomeAway

Attack

Fluminense stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Sao Paulo stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Fluminense stronger

HomeAway

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Notable shift away from Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sao Paulo win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.

Movement strength: Notable

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Sao Paulo win

Latest market chance 40.8%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

43.0% → 40.8%

−2.2 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 29.2%

Steady

Market view unchanged

28.9% → 29.2%

+0.3 pts

Fluminense win

Latest market chance 30.0%

Notable shortening

Market chance increased

28.0% → 30.0%

+2.0 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

7 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Sao Paulo

Draw

Fluminense

6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Sao Paulo

Fluminense

Season Profile

This season

10th

League Position

4th

Games Played

1.29

Points/Game

1.68

1.15

Goals/Game

1.62

1.15

Conceded/Game

1.24

13.6

Shots/Game

14.6

4.2

Shots on Target

5.6

Home vs Away Context

Sao Paulo at home (17 matches) vs Fluminense away (17 matches)

2.00

Points/Game

1.06

1.47

Goals/Game

1.41

0.76

Conceded/Game

1.47

59%

Win Rate

24%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Sao Paulo

Home form

Won 3 of last 5 at home

1.0

Goals scored
per match

0.6

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

3/5

Clean
sheets

Fluminense

Away form

Lost 3 of last 5 away

1.6

Goals scored
per match

1.4

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Sao Paulo Wins

Draws

Fluminense Wins

Avg Goals

3.6

2026-05-162026

Fluminense2 – 1Sao Paulo

2025-11-272025

Fluminense6 – 0Sao Paulo

2025-07-272025

Sao Paulo3 – 1Fluminense

2024-09-012024

Fluminense2 – 0Sao Paulo

2024-05-142024

Sao Paulo2 – 1Fluminense

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Sao Paulo

Fluminense

Recent Scoring Profile

1.00

Goals scored / game

1.90

1.10

Goals conceded / game

1.30

3/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

8/10

4/10

Both Teams Scored

6/10

3/10

Failed to Score

1/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

69.7%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

45.0%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

25.3%

BTTSBoth teams score

51.1%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 42.9%→Latest 44.8%+1.9 pts

Notable move towards 3+ goals

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 15 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 48.8%→Latest 51.1%+2.3 pts

Notable move towards both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 15 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

7 of Sao Paulo's 10 matches and 6 of Fluminense's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Head to Head, Prediction