Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Do MorumBIS
Thu 05 Nov 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.33
Draw
3.17
Away Win
3.43
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
Djhordney 🟨
31'
31'
🟥 M. Pereira
45+1'
🟨 Andre Ramalho
52'
🟨 P. Milans
Pedro Lima 🟨
60'
Newton 🟨
61'
67'
🟨 M. Depay
Luciano 🟨
67'
82'
🟥 Yuri Alberto
Ferreira 🟨
89'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
16
Total Shots
18
5
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
8
12
Fouls
14
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
2
3
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Sao Paulo (4-1-4-1)
Rafael
Pedro Lima
Robert Arboleda
Rafael Tolói
Iago Borduchi
Newton
Artur
Djhordney
Damián Bobadilla
Lucas Moura
Luciano
Corinthians (4-2-3-1)
Hugo Souza
Pedro Milans
André Ramalho
Gustavo Henrique
Fabrizio Angileri
André Luiz
Breno Bidon
Kaio César
Rodrigo Garro
Matheus Bidu
Yuri Alberto
Player Ratings ?
Sao Paulo
RafaelG7.9
Pedro LimaD7.5
Iago BorduchiD7.3
Corinthians
André RamalhoD7.5
Hugo SouzaG7.3
Gustavo HenriqueD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo rate stronger in recent form and defence; Corinthians edge head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Sao Paulo a slight edge.
Leads 2 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sao Paulo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Sao Paulo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Corinthians stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sao Paulo have secured four wins from their last five home outings, while Corinthians have suffered five consecutive defeats away from home in this current season. The host side have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have kept three clean sheets in that same sample. Both squads carry concerns with five players out and one doubtful for each side ahead of the clash. Sao Paulo rate stronger on form and defence, while Corinthians rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Corinthians won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 10 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Sao Paulo's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Sao Paulo's implied win probability has fallen by 4.8 percentage points, while Corinthians's implied win probability has risen by 4.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sao Paulo a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
8
Corinthians losing run
45%
Sao Paulo yellow cards after 75'
0
Corinthians points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sao Paulo win as less likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sao Paulo win
Latest market chance 40.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
45.7% → 40.9%
−4.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.6% → 29.8%
+0.2 pts
Corinthians win
Latest market chance 29.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
24.7% → 29.3%
+4.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sao Paulo
Draw
Corinthians
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sao PauloCorinthians
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
18th
33
Games Played
33
1.30
Points/Game
1.09
1.18
Goals/Game
1.09
1.18
Conceded/Game
1.27
13.6
Shots/Game
13.6
4.2
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Sao Paulo at home (17 matches) vs Corinthians away (17 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.88
1.47
Goals/Game
1.06
0.76
Conceded/Game
1.47
59%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sao Paulo
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Corinthians
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sao Paulo Wins
2
Draws
1
Corinthians Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.8
Corinthians3 – 2Sao Paulo
Corinthians3 – 1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2 – 0Corinthians
Sao Paulo3 – 1Corinthians
Corinthians2 – 2Sao Paulo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sao Paulovs
Corinthians
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.00
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 37.4%→Latest 40.4%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 44.3%→Latest 47.3%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Sao Paulo's 10 matches and 5 of Corinthians's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?