Santos vs Palmeiras Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.24
Draw
3.44
Away Win
2.23
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Santos
Palmeiras
Philippe Coutinho 🟨
38'
38'
🟨 Marlon Freitas
60'
🟨 Joaquín Piquerez
67'
🟨 Alexander Barboza
Gabriel Bontempo 🟨
78'
84'
🟨 Agustin Giay
João Schmidt 🟨
87'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
16
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Goal
5
1
Corner Kicks
3
8
Fouls
17
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Santos (4-2-3-1)
Diógenes
Rodinei
João Alencar
Luan Peres
Á. Barreal
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
C. Oliva
Gabriel Bontempo
Philippe Coutinho
Everton
Gabriel Barbosa
Palmeiras (3-4-2-1)
Carlos Miguel
Murilo
G. Gómez
A. Barboza
A. Giay
Marlon Freitas
Lucas Evangelista
J. Piquerez
J. Arias
Andreas Pereira
J. López
Player Ratings ?
Santos
DiógenesG7.9
RodineiD7.3
Gabriel BontempoM7.2
Palmeiras
Carlos MiguelG7.6
J. LópezF7.3
Marlon FreitasM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Santos edge head-to-head, Palmeiras edge recent form and defence, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palmeiras slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Palmeiras stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Santos stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Palmeiras have secured just a solitary away victory in their last five outings, while Santos have managed only one win from their home fixtures over the same span. Santos have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet at this venue during that period. The hosts face six confirmed absences, whereas Palmeiras will operate with three confirmed out and one player listed as doubtful. Palmeiras rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Santos rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Santos's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points, while Palmeiras's implied win probability has risen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Palmeiras
Palmeiras's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Palmeiras win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Santos win
Latest market chance 29.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
31.8% → 29.8%
−2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.2% → 28.2%
±0.0 pts
Palmeiras win
Latest market chance 42.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
39.9% → 42.0%
+2.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Santos
Draw
Palmeiras
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SantosPalmeiras
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
2nd
32
Games Played
32
1.44
Points/Game
2.16
1.53
Goals/Game
1.75
1.47
Conceded/Game
0.69
13.9
Shots/Game
15.5
4.3
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
Santos at home (17 matches) vs Palmeiras away (17 matches)
1.47
Points/Game
1.82
1.35
Goals/Game
1.53
1.24
Conceded/Game
0.71
35%
Win Rate
47%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Santos
Home form
L
D
W
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Palmeiras
Away form
L
D
D
D
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Santos Wins
2
Draws
2
Palmeiras Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.6
Palmeiras1 – 1Santos
Santos1 – 0Palmeiras
Palmeiras2 – 0Santos
Palmeiras1 – 2Santos
Santos0 – 0Palmeiras
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Santosvs
Palmeiras
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.20
Goals conceded / game
0.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.4%→Latest 50.5%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.1%→Latest 55.3%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Santos's 10 matches and 4 of Palmeiras's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?