Santos vs Bahia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 01:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.94
Draw
3.72
Away Win
3.76
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Santos
Bahia
Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior 🟨
31'
39'
⚽ Luciano
44'
🟨 Nicolas Acevedo
Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior 🟥
45'
50'
🟨 Kanu
João Schmidt 🟨
89'
Luan Peres (Benjamín Rollheiser) ⚽
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
23
Total Shots
16
11
Shots on Goal
2
14
Corner Kicks
8
13
Fouls
23
2
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
10
Starting Lineups
Santos (4-2-3-1)
Diógenes
Rodinei
João Alencar
Luan Peres
Á. Barreal
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
Gabriel Bontempo
Everton
Philippe Coutinho
Neymar
Gabriel Barbosa
Bahia (4-3-3)
Ronaldo
Marcos Victor
David Duarte
Kanu
Luciano Juba
Erick
N. Acevedo
Rodrigo Nestor
C. Olivera
A. Véliz
Erick Pulga
Player Ratings ?
Santos
Luan PeresD7.3
RonyF7.0
Á. BarrealD7.0
Bahia
RonaldoG8.8
David DuarteD7.0
Luciano JubaD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Santos edge recent form, attack and defence, Bahia edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Santos stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Santos stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Santos stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bahia slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bahia have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Santos have secured one win alongside three draws in their corresponding home sample. Santos have found the net in four of their last five home matches but remain without a clean sheet across that same recent sequence. The hosts face significant squad concerns with four players out and one doubtful, whereas Bahia have only one player unavailable for selection. Santos rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Bahia hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 25 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Santos's implied win probability has risen by 6.9 percentage points, while Bahia's implied win probability has fallen by 5.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Santos
Santos's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Santos win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Santos win
Latest market chance 48.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.5% → 48.4%
+6.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.4% → 25.9%
−1.5 pts
Bahia win
Latest market chance 25.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.1% → 25.8%
−5.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Santos
Draw
Bahia
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SantosBahia
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
7th
31
Games Played
31
1.45
Points/Game
1.58
1.55
Goals/Game
1.42
1.48
Conceded/Game
1.26
13.9
Shots/Game
14.2
4.3
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Santos at home (17 matches) vs Bahia away (17 matches)
1.47
Points/Game
1.35
1.35
Goals/Game
1.41
1.24
Conceded/Game
1.53
35%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Santos
Home form
D
L
D
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bahia
Away form
D
W
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Santos Wins
2
Draws
2
Bahia Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
Bahia2 – 2Santos
Bahia2 – 0Santos
Santos2 – 2Bahia
Bahia1 – 2Santos
Santos3 – 0Bahia
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Santosvs
Bahia
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.40
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 54.5%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 57.5%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Santos's 10 matches and 3 of Bahia's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?