Palmeiras vs Corinthians Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Nubank Parque
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.66
Draw
3.73
Away Win
5.93
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Palmeiras
Corinthians
Jhon Arias 🟨
9'
15'
🟨 Raniele
Alexander Barboza (Lucas Evangelista) ⚽
16'
Agustin Giay (Jhon Arias) ⚽
45+1'
Matheus Bidu ⚽ (OG)
46'
48'
🟨 Memphis Depay
Agustin Giay 🟨
49'
Agustin Giay ⚽
51'
59'
🟨 Gabriel Paulista
65'
🟨 Vitinho
Gustavo Gómez 🟨
72'
Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho •
81'
90+1'
⚽ Gustavo Henrique (Vitinho)
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
22
Total Shots
12
8
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
3
17
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Palmeiras (3-4-2-1)
Carlos Miguel
Murilo
G. Gómez
A. Barboza
A. Giay
Andreas Pereira
Lucas Evangelista
J. Piquerez
J. López
J. Arias
Vitor Roque
Corinthians (4-1-3-2)
Hugo Souza
Matheuzinho
Gabriel Paulista
Gustavo Henrique
Matheus Bidu
Raniele
Breno
A. Carrillo
Andre
Yuri Alberto
M. Depay
Player Ratings ?
Palmeiras
A. GiayM9.2
A. BarbozaD8.6
J. AriasM7.7
Corinthians
Hugo SouzaG6.8
MatheuzinhoD6.5
Pedro RaulF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Palmeiras
Palmeiras rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Palmeiras a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palmeiras stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Palmeiras stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Palmeiras stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Palmeiras stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Palmeiras have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Corinthians have managed just one win in their corresponding away sample. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have also kept three clean sheets during that same period. Palmeiras face two confirmed absences ahead of the clash, whereas Corinthians must manage a squad with five players out and one listed as doubtful. Palmeiras rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 12 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Palmeiras's implied win probability has fallen by 2.7 percentage points, while Corinthians's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Palmeiras a strong edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Palmeiras
Palmeiras's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Palmeiras win as less likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Palmeiras win
Latest market chance 57.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
60.4% → 57.7%
−2.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.6% → 25.6%
+1.0 pts
Corinthians win
Latest market chance 16.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
15.0% → 16.8%
+1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Palmeiras
Draw
Corinthians
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PalmeirasCorinthians
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
16th
29
Games Played
29
2.07
Points/Game
1.10
1.66
Goals/Game
1.03
0.72
Conceded/Game
1.17
15.5
Shots/Game
13.6
5.3
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Palmeiras at home (17 matches) vs Corinthians away (17 matches)
2.47
Points/Game
0.88
2.12
Goals/Game
1.06
0.65
Conceded/Game
1.47
76%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Palmeiras
Home form
L
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Corinthians
Away form
D
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Palmeiras Wins
2
Draws
2
Corinthians Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.6
Corinthians0 – 0Palmeiras
Corinthians1 – 1Palmeiras
Palmeiras2 – 0Corinthians
Corinthians2 – 0Palmeiras
Palmeiras2 – 0Corinthians
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Palmeirasvs
Corinthians
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.90
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.7%→Latest 45.2%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 45.2%→Latest 45.9%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Palmeiras's 10 matches and 1 of Corinthians's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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