Mirassol vs Sao Paulo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
José Maria de Campos Maia
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.39
Draw
3.32
Away Win
3.15
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
Rafael ⚽ (OG)
7'
17'
🟨 Djhordney Ferreira
26'
🟨 Iago Amaral Borduchi
39'
⚽ Pedro Lima (Damian Bobadilla)
Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve 🟨
61'
Willian Estefani Machado 🟨
70'
Wallisson 🟨
83'
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
18
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
7
13
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Mirassol (4-2-3-1)
Walter
Igor Formiga
João Victor
Willian Machado
Reinaldo
Neto Moura
Denilson
Edson
Eduardo
Alesson
Bruno Santos
Sao Paulo (3-4-2-1)
Rafael
Newton
R. Arboleda
Osorio Luis
Pedro Lima
D. Ferreira
Marcos Antônio
Iago
Lucas Moura
D. Bobadilla
Luciano
Player Ratings ?
Mirassol
ReinaldoD7.3
Willian MachadoD7.1
WalterG7.0
Sao Paulo
Pedro LimaM7.8
LucianoF7.1
Pablo MaiaM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Mirassol edge attack and head-to-head, Sao Paulo edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sao Paulo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mirassol stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sao Paulo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Mirassol stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mirassol have secured two victories from their last five home outings, while Sao Paulo have recorded just one draw in their corresponding away fixtures over the same span. The hosts have scored in each of their last five matches at home but have kept just two clean sheets during that identical period. Mirassol face one confirmed absence and one player listed as doubtful, whereas Sao Paulo must manage four definite absences alongside a further doubtful selection for this BR1 encounter. Sao Paulo rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Mirassol rate stronger on attack and head-to-head. Sao Paulo won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 26 April 2026, having won 1 of the last 3 encounters to Mirassol's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Mirassol's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points, while Sao Paulo's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
Mirassol losing run
1
Sao Paulo points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Mirassol
Mirassol's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Mirassol win as less likely than it did 7 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mirassol win
Latest market chance 40.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
41.6% → 40.5%
−1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.1% → 29.3%
+0.2 pts
Sao Paulo win
Latest market chance 30.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
29.3% → 30.3%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mirassol
Draw
Sao Paulo
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MirassolSao Paulo

Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
9th
31
Games Played
31
1.16
Points/Game
1.35
1.16
Goals/Game
1.16
1.42
Conceded/Game
1.13
13.4
Shots/Game
13.6
4.3
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Mirassol at home (17 matches) vs Sao Paulo away (17 matches)
1.59
Points/Game
0.59
1.41
Goals/Game
0.82
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.53
41%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Mirassol
Home form
L
D
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Sao Paulo
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mirassol Wins
2
Draws
0
Sao Paulo Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Sao Paulo1 – 0Mirassol
Mirassol3 – 0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo0 – 2Mirassol
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mirassolvs
Sao Paulo

Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.00
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.0%→Latest 46.8%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 52.7%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Mirassol's 10 matches and 4 of Sao Paulo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?