Mirassol vs Atletico-MG Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
José Maria de Campos Maia
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 21:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.94
Draw
3.64
Away Win
3.88
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Mirassol edge recent form and defence, Atletico-MG edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mirassol slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Mirassol stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atletico-MG stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mirassol have enjoyed a solid unbeaten run at home in their last five outings, while Atletico-MG struggle away with just two draws and three losses from the same number of matches. The hosts have found the net in every one of their last five home games but have managed to keep a clean sheet only twice during that identical sample period. Mirassol rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Atletico-MG rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Atletico-MG won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 16 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 3 encounters to Mirassol's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Mirassol's implied win probability has risen by 11.0 percentage points, while Atletico-MG's implied win probability has fallen by 9.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
Mirassol losing run
2
Atletico-MG points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Mirassol
No current absences reported
Atletico-MG
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Mirassol
Mirassol's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Mirassol win as more likely than it did 10 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mirassol win
Latest market chance 48.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
37.5% → 48.5%
+11.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
28.0% → 26.3%
−1.7 pts
Atletico-MG win
Latest market chance 25.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
34.4% → 25.1%
−9.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mirassol
Draw
Atletico-MG
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MirassolAtletico-MG
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
7th
34
Games Played
34
1.18
Points/Game
1.47
1.15
Goals/Game
1.29
1.41
Conceded/Game
1.18
13.4
Shots/Game
13.8
4.3
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Mirassol at home (17 matches) vs Atletico-MG away (17 matches)
1.59
Points/Game
0.88
1.41
Goals/Game
1.00
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.29
41%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mirassol
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atletico-MG
Away form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mirassol Wins
0
Draws
1
Atletico-MG Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Atletico-MG3 – 1Mirassol
Atletico-MG1 – 0Mirassol
Mirassol2 – 2Atletico-MG
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mirassolvs
Atletico-MG
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.20
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.2%→Latest 51.5%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.5%→Latest 54.7%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Mirassol's 10 matches and 7 of Atletico-MG's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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