Gremio vs Internacional Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena do Grêmio
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.06
Draw
3.12
Away Win
2.57
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Gremio
Internacional
25'
🟨 Alan Patrick
27'
🟨 Rodrigo Villagra
Mathias Villasanti 🟨
29'
33'
⚽ Vitinho (Alerrandro)
53'
🟨 Bruno Henrique
Francis Amuzu 🟨
65'
Wallace Gomes da Silva Santos ⚽
73'
Wallace Gomes da Silva Santos 🟨
90+7'
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
12
Total Shots
14
3
Shots on Goal
3
6
Corner Kicks
5
10
Fouls
26
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Gremio (4-3-3)
Weverton
Diego Caito
Wallace
W. Kannemann
Marlon
F. Krovinović
Danilo Barbosa
M. Villasanti
C. Pavón
Carlos Vinícius
F. Amuzu
Internacional (3-4-2-1)
Anthoni
Bruno Gomes
G. Mercado
Juninho
B. Aguirre
R. Villagra
Thiago Maia
A. Bernabéi
Vitinho
Alerrandro
Alan Patrick
Player Ratings ?
Gremio
WallaceD7.8
W. KannemannD7.2
MarlonD6.9
Internacional
VitinhoM7.2
JuninhoD7.0
A. BernabéiM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Gremio edge attack and head-to-head, Internacional edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Internacional stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Gremio slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Internacional slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Gremio slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Internacional have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five away outings, whereas Gremio boast two victories and two draws from their corresponding home sample. Gremio have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. Four players are unavailable for Gremio while Internacional face three absences alongside one doubtful selection ahead of the match. Internacional rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Gremio hold a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 12 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Gremio's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points, while Internacional's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Internacional losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Gremio
Gremio's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Gremio win as less likely than it did 2 days ago. Internacional remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Gremio win
Latest market chance 32.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.7% → 32.5%
−2.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.0% → 29.2%
+0.2 pts
Internacional win
Latest market chance 38.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
36.3% → 38.3%
+2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Gremio
Draw
Internacional
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GremioInternacional
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
17th
29
Games Played
29
1.03
Points/Game
1.07
1.07
Goals/Game
1.10
1.34
Conceded/Game
1.28
12.0
Shots/Game
14.8
3.9
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Gremio at home (17 matches) vs Internacional away (17 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
0.88
1.59
Goals/Game
0.94
1.24
Conceded/Game
1.47
47%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Gremio
Home form
D
W
W
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Internacional
Away form
L
D
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Gremio Wins
1
Draws
2
Internacional Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Internacional0 – 0Gremio
Internacional2 – 3Gremio
Gremio1 – 1Internacional
Internacional1 – 0Gremio
Gremio0 – 1Internacional
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Gremiovs
Internacional
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 46.6%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 52.7%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Gremio's 10 matches and 1 of Internacional's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?