Gremio vs Cruzeiro Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena do Grêmio
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.00
Draw
3.63
Away Win
2.36
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 4
Match Events ?
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Carlos Vinícius ⚽ (P)
17'
23'
⚽ Kaio Jorge (Matheus Pereira)
Cristian Pavón ⚽
41'
48'
⚽ Kaio Jorge
61'
⚽ Kaio Jorge (William)
67'
🟨 João Marcelo
71'
🟨 Matheus Pereira
Walter Kannemann 🟨
73'
Walter Kannemann 🟥
73'
76'
🟨 Keny arroyo
80'
⚽ João Marcelo (Gerson)
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
17
Total Shots
13
6
Shots on Goal
6
8
Corner Kicks
8
19
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Gremio (4-2-3-1)
Weverton
Diego Caito
Gustavo Martins
W. Kannemann
Marlon
M. Villasanti
Danilo Barbosa
C. Pavón
F. Krovinović
F. Amuzu
Carlos Vinícius
Cruzeiro (4-2-3-1)
Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa
William
João Marcelo
Jonathan
L. Villalba
Zé Lucas
L. Romero
K. Arroyo
Matheus Pereira
Gerson
Kaio Jorge
Player Ratings ?
Gremio
C. PavónM7.4
Carlos ViníciusF6.8
M. VillasantiM6.6
Cruzeiro
Kaio JorgeF9.3
Matheus PereiraM7.7
João MarceloD7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Gremio edge defence, giving Cruzeiro an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cruzeiro stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cruzeiro stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Gremio slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Cruzeiro stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gremio have recorded two wins and two draws from their last five home outings, while Cruzeiro sit with just two victories in their last five away matches. The host side have found the net in four of their last five home games but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. Gremio face concerns with one player out and another doubtful, whereas Cruzeiro carry a heavier burden with three players unavailable and one in doubt. Cruzeiro rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Gremio hold a slight advantage in defence. Cruzeiro won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 19 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Gremio's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Gremio's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points, while Cruzeiro's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Cruzeiro.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Cruzeiro win as less likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Gremio win
Latest market chance 32.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
31.0% → 32.2%
+1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 26.9%
+0.3 pts
Cruzeiro win
Latest market chance 40.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
42.4% → 40.9%
−1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Gremio
Draw
Cruzeiro
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GremioCruzeiro
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
7th
30
Games Played
30
1.03
Points/Game
1.60
1.07
Goals/Game
1.53
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.47
12.0
Shots/Game
15.2
3.9
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Gremio at home (17 matches) vs Cruzeiro away (17 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
1.53
1.59
Goals/Game
1.47
1.24
Conceded/Game
1.76
47%
Win Rate
47%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Gremio
Home form
W
W
L
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cruzeiro
Away form
W
L
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Gremio Wins
0
Draws
1
Cruzeiro Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.4
Cruzeiro2 – 0Gremio
Gremio0 – 1Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro4 – 1Gremio
Cruzeiro1 – 1Gremio
Gremio0 – 2Cruzeiro
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Gremiovs
Cruzeiro
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 52.3%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.8%→Latest 56.8%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Gremio's 10 matches and 2 of Cruzeiro's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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