Gremio vs Bahia Head to Head | Brazil Serie A

Match Prediction

No clear statistical edge

The matchup is mixed. Gremio edge defence, Bahia edge recent form and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Bahia stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Closely matched

HomeAway

Defence

Gremio stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Bahia stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Gremio have recorded just one win from their last five home outings, while Bahia have managed a solitary victory in their recent away fixtures. The hosts have scored in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Bahia rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Gremio rate stronger on defence, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 14-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.

Pre-Match Context

Team Availability

Gremio

No current absences reported

Bahia

No current absences reported

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Little change in the market

The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 14 days before kickoff.

Movement strength: Steady

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Gremio win

Latest market chance 41.0%

Steady

Market view unchanged

40.3% → 41.0%

+0.7 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 26.9%

Steady

Market view unchanged

27.0% → 26.9%

−0.1 pts

Bahia win

Latest market chance 32.1%

Steady

Market view unchanged

32.8% → 32.1%

−0.7 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

9 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Gremio

Draw

Bahia

6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Gremio

Bahia

Season Profile

This season

18th

League Position

6th

Games Played

1.09

Points/Game

1.56

1.12

Goals/Game

1.47

1.38

Conceded/Game

1.32

12.0

Shots/Game

14.2

3.9

Shots on Target

4.6

Home vs Away Context

Gremio at home (17 matches) vs Bahia away (17 matches)

1.71

Points/Game

1.35

1.59

Goals/Game

1.41

1.24

Conceded/Game

1.53

47%

Win Rate

35%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Gremio

Home form

1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home

1.2

Goals scored
per match

1.4

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Bahia

Away form

Lost 3 of last 5 away

1.4

Goals scored
per match

1.8

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

0/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Gremio Wins

Draws

Bahia Wins

Avg Goals

2.0

2026-05-172026

Bahia1 – 1Gremio

2025-10-202025

Bahia4 – 0Gremio

2025-05-252025

Gremio1 – 0Bahia

2024-08-172024

Gremio0 – 2Bahia

2024-04-282024

Bahia1 – 0Gremio

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Gremio

Bahia

Recent Scoring Profile

1.10

Goals scored / game

1.60

1.50

Goals conceded / game

1.70

4/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

7/10

6/10

Both Teams Scored

7/10

2/10

Failed to Score

2/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

77.0%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

55.3%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

34.6%

BTTSBoth teams score

58.9%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 55.1%→Latest 55.3%+0.2 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 17 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 58.9%→Latest 58.9%±0.0 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 17 days before kickoff

Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.

6 of Gremio's 10 matches and 6 of Bahia's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Gremio vs Bahia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis