Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena do Grêmio
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.41
Draw
3.38
Away Win
3.08
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
23'
🟨 J. Portilla
J. Enamorado 🟨
29'
37'
🟨 Leo Derik
Marlon ⚽
39'
Fabian Balbuena ⚽
52'
Carlos Vinicius 🟨
66'
E. Noriega 🟨
69'
88'
🟨 B. Zapelli
Weverton 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
30%
Ball Possession
70%
19
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
8
13
Fouls
17
4
Yellow Cards
3
2
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Gremio (3-4-3)
Weverton
Gustavo Martins
Fabián Balbuena
Wallace
João Pedro
Erick Noriega
Mathias Villasanti
Marlon
José Enamorado
Carlos Vinícius
Francis Amuzu
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
Mycael
Arthur Dias
Juan Felipe Aguirre
Lucas Esquivel
Steven Mendoza
Juan Portilla
Luiz Gustavo
Leonardo Derik
Leozinho
João Cruz
Kevin Viveros
Player Ratings ?
Gremio
WevertonG8.5
MarlonM8.3
Fabián BalbuenaD8.0
Atletico Paranaense
Luiz GustavoM7.9
Lucas EsquivelD7.5
LeozinhoF7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Gremio edge defence and head-to-head, Atletico Paranaense edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atletico Paranaense stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Gremio slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Gremio stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while Gremio have managed just one victory in their last five home matches. Gremio have found the net in four of their last five home games but have only kept a clean sheet once during that same period. Both squads carry significant injury concerns ahead of kickoff, with Gremio facing four confirmed absences alongside one doubtful player, while Atletico Paranaense are without six players and have one more in doubt. Atletico Paranaense rate stronger on form and attack, while Gremio rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Gremio's implied win probability has fallen by 5.9 percentage points, while Atletico Paranaense's implied win probability has risen by 6.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Atletico Paranaense win as more likely than it did 10 days ago. Gremio remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Gremio win
Latest market chance 39.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
41.7% → 39.6%
−2.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.7% → 28.2%
−0.5 pts
Atletico Paranaense win
Latest market chance 32.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
29.6% → 32.2%
+2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Gremio
Draw
Atletico Paranaense
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GremioAtletico Paranaense
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
4th
32
Games Played
32
1.06
Points/Game
1.69
1.09
Goals/Game
1.56
1.38
Conceded/Game
1.19
12.0
Shots/Game
13.3
3.9
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Gremio at home (17 matches) vs Atletico Paranaense away (17 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
1.29
1.59
Goals/Game
1.35
1.24
Conceded/Game
1.47
47%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Gremio
Home form
W
L
D
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atletico Paranaense
Away form
W
L
D
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Gremio Wins
3
Draws
1
Atletico Paranaense Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Atletico Paranaense0 – 0Gremio
Atletico Paranaense0 – 2Gremio
Gremio2 – 0Atletico Paranaense
Gremio1 – 2Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense1 – 2Gremio
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Gremiovs
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 43.0%→Latest 49.7%+6.7 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.3%→Latest 54.9%+5.6 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Gremio's 10 matches and 4 of Atletico Paranaense's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?