Fluminense vs Santos Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio do Maracanã
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.45
Draw
3.41
Away Win
3.01
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Fluminense
Santos
Rodrigo Castillo (Igor Rabello) ⚽
4'
25'
🟨 Álvaro Barreal
Agustín Canobbio 🟨
31'
49'
⚽ Gabriel Barbosa (Rodinei)
54'
⚽ Philippe Coutinho (Gabriel Bontempo)
Jefferson David Savarino Quintero 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
8
Total Shots
17
2
Shots on Goal
5
4
Corner Kicks
5
18
Fouls
18
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Fluminense (4-2-3-1)
Fábio
Samuel Xavier
Ignacio
Igor Rabello
Renê
Hércules
Nonato
A. Canobbio
L. Acosta
Y. Soteldo
R. Castillo
Santos (4-2-3-1)
Diógenes
Rodinei
Lucas Veríssimo
Luan Peres
Á. Barreal
Gabriel Bontempo
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
Philippe Coutinho
Neymar
Everton
Gabriel Barbosa
Player Ratings ?
Fluminense
R. CastilloF7.5
Igor RabelloD7.2
HérculesM7.1
Santos
Gabriel BarbosaF8.2
Philippe CoutinhoM8.0
Gabriel BontempoM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Fluminense edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Santos edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Santos slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Fluminense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Fluminense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Fluminense stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Santos have enjoyed a strong away run with four wins from their last five outings, while Fluminense remain unbeaten at home during the same period with just one draw in that span. The host side have found the net in four of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets in that same sequence. Fluminense face a selection challenge with four players unavailable, whereas Santos will be without four names and one remains doubtful. Santos hold a slight advantage in form, while Fluminense rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack and defence. Fluminense won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 19 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Santos's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Fluminense's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Santos's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Santos unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
13
Fluminense points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Santos
Santos's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Santos win as more likely than it did 7 days ago. Fluminense remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Fluminense win
Latest market chance 40.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
41.4% → 40.4%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.2% → 27.5%
−0.7 pts
Santos win
Latest market chance 32.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
30.4% → 32.1%
+1.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Fluminense
Draw
Santos
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FluminenseSantos
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
8th
30
Games Played
30
1.70
Points/Game
1.40
1.60
Goals/Game
1.53
1.23
Conceded/Game
1.50
14.6
Shots/Game
13.9
5.6
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Fluminense at home (17 matches) vs Santos away (17 matches)
2.29
Points/Game
1.29
1.82
Goals/Game
1.59
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.65
71%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Fluminense
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Santos
Away form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Fluminense Wins
4
Draws
1
Santos Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
Santos2 – 3Fluminense
Santos0 – 0Fluminense
Fluminense1 – 0Santos
Santos0 – 3Fluminense
Fluminense1 – 0Santos
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Fluminensevs
Santos
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.5%→Latest 49.3%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 54.7%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Fluminense's 10 matches and 3 of Santos's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?