Flamengo vs Gremio Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio do Maracanã
Wed 04 Nov 2026 · 22:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.16
Draw
8.61
Away Win
15.19
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Flamengo
Gremio
Samuel Lino ⚽
20'
Pedro (J. Carrascal) ⚽
28'
Pedro ⚽
45+2'
59'
🟨 Walter Kannemann
69'
⚽ F. Amuzu
89'
🟨 M. Villasanti
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
17
Total Shots
7
8
Shots on Goal
4
7
Corner Kicks
4
7
Fouls
6
0
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Flamengo (4-2-3-1)
Agustín Rossi
Guillermo Varela
Léo Ortiz
Léo Pereira
Ayrton Lucas
Erick Pulgar
Jorginho
Jorge Carrascal
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
Samuel Lino
Pedro Guilherme
Gremio (4-1-4-1)
Gabriel Grando
Marcos Rocha
Gustavo Martins
Walter Kannemann
Pedro Gabriel
Erick Noriega
Tetê
Mathias Villasanti
Dodi
Caio Paulista
Martin Braithwaite
Player Ratings ?
Flamengo
Pedro GuilhermeF8.5
JorginhoM7.7
Jorge CarrascalM7.5
Gremio
Francis AmuzuF7.7
Erick NoriegaM7.2
Gabriel GrandoG6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Flamengo
Flamengo rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Flamengo an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Flamengo arrive at home with a perfect record from their last five outings, while Gremio have managed just one win and one draw in the same number of away fixtures. The hosts have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have kept two clean sheets during that identical period. Both squads carry injury concerns ahead of the clash, with Flamengo having three players out and one doubtful, while Gremio face four unavailable names alongside a single doubtful selection. Flamengo rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Flamengo won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 10 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Gremio's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Flamengo's implied win probability has risen by 6.2 percentage points, while Gremio's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Flamengo.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Flamengo unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
15
Flamengo points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Flamengo
Flamengo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Flamengo win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Flamengo win
Latest market chance 81.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
75.4% → 81.6%
+6.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 12.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
15.8% → 12.1%
−3.7 pts
Gremio win
Latest market chance 6.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
8.8% → 6.3%
−2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Flamengo
Draw
Gremio
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FlamengoGremio
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
16th
33
Games Played
33
2.21
Points/Game
1.12
2.06
Goals/Game
1.12
0.85
Conceded/Game
1.33
16.1
Shots/Game
12.0
5.9
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Flamengo at home (17 matches) vs Gremio away (17 matches)
2.47
Points/Game
0.47
2.06
Goals/Game
0.65
0.76
Conceded/Game
1.53
76%
Win Rate
6%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Flamengo
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Gremio
Away form
L
L
L
D
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Flamengo Wins
3
Draws
1
Gremio Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Gremio0 – 1Flamengo
Flamengo1 – 1Gremio
Gremio0 – 2Flamengo
Gremio3 – 2Flamengo
Flamengo2 – 1Gremio
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Flamengovs
Gremio
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
1.30
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.1%→Latest 69.0%+6.9 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.9%→Latest 47.2%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Flamengo's 10 matches and 5 of Gremio's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?