Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio do Maracanã
Wed 18 Nov 2026 · 23:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.24
Draw
6.59
Away Win
11.06
Match Prediction
Data favours
Flamengo
Flamengo rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Flamengo an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Flamengo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Flamengo arrive at this BR1 fixture with a perfect record in their last five home outings, while Atletico Paranaense have managed just one win from their last five away matches. The hosts have scored in each of their last five home matches but have kept only one clean sheet during that same period. Flamengo rate stronger on form, attack and defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Flamengo's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points, while Atletico Paranaense's implied win probability has fallen by 1.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Flamengo.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Flamengo unbeaten run
15
Flamengo points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Flamengo
No current absences reported
Atletico Paranaense
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Flamengo
Flamengo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Flamengo win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Flamengo win
Latest market chance 76.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
72.6% → 76.1%
+3.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 15.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
17.4% → 15.6%
−1.8 pts
Atletico Paranaense win
Latest market chance 8.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
10.0% → 8.3%
−1.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Flamengo
Draw
Atletico Paranaense
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FlamengoAtletico Paranaense
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
5th
34
Games Played
34
2.24
Points/Game
1.59
2.09
Goals/Game
1.50
0.85
Conceded/Game
1.26
16.1
Shots/Game
13.3
5.9
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Flamengo at home (17 matches) vs Atletico Paranaense away (17 matches)
2.47
Points/Game
1.29
2.06
Goals/Game
1.35
0.76
Conceded/Game
1.47
76%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Flamengo
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atletico Paranaense
Away form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Flamengo Wins
1
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Atletico Paranaense1 – 1Flamengo
Flamengo1 – 0Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense1 – 1Flamengo
Flamengo0 – 3Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense2 – 1Flamengo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Flamengovs
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
1.70
0.80
Goals conceded / game
2.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.2%→Latest 63.5%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 48.0%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of Flamengo's 10 matches and 6 of Atletico Paranaense's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?