Flamengo vs Atletico-MG Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio do Maracanã
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.30
Draw
5.83
Away Win
10.08
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
7'
⚽ Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte (Angelo Preciado)
Gonzalo Plata (Guillermo Varela) ⚽
34'
Giorgian de Arrascaeta (Samuel Lino) ⚽
41'
59'
⚽ Renan Lodi (Victor Hugo Gomes Silva)
Léo Pereira 🟨
75'
Jorge Carrascal 🟨
76'
90+8'
🟨 Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza
Jorge Carrascal ⚽ (P)
90+9'
Match Statistics ?
72%
Ball Possession
28%
29
Total Shots
5
9
Shots on Goal
4
14
Corner Kicks
0
9
Fouls
15
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Flamengo (4-2-3-1)
A. Rossi
G. Varela
Léo Ortiz
Léo Pereira
Alex Sandro
E. Pulgar
Jorginho
G. Plata
G. de Arrascaeta
Samuel Lino
Pedro
Atletico-MG (4-4-2)
Gabriel Delfim
Natanael
Vitão
Lyanco
Renan Lodi
A. Preciado
Maycon
A. Franco
Bernard
Victor Hugo
Igor Gomes
Player Ratings ?
Flamengo
G. de ArrascaetaM8.2
G. PlataM8.0
Samuel LinoM7.7
Atletico-MG
Victor HugoF7.3
Renan LodiD7.1
BernardM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Flamengo
Flamengo rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Flamengo a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Flamengo arrive at home with an impressive unbeaten run of five straight wins, while Atletico-MG have managed just a solitary victory from their last five away outings. The hosts have found the net in every one of their last five home matches yet have also kept three clean sheets during that same period. Both squads carry significant injury concerns ahead of kickoff, with Flamengo having three players unavailable and Atletico-MG facing five absences. Flamengo rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Flamengo won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 27 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Atletico-MG's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Flamengo's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points, while Atletico-MG's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Flamengo a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Flamengo unbeaten run
15
Flamengo points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Flamengo
Flamengo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Flamengo win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Flamengo win
Latest market chance 73.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
71.6% → 73.3%
+1.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 17.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
18.5% → 17.5%
−1.0 pts
Atletico-MG win
Latest market chance 9.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
9.9% → 9.2%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Flamengo
Draw
Atletico-MG
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FlamengoAtletico-MG
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
6th
31
Games Played
31
2.16
Points/Game
1.61
1.97
Goals/Game
1.35
0.81
Conceded/Game
1.13
16.1
Shots/Game
13.8
5.9
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Flamengo at home (17 matches) vs Atletico-MG away (17 matches)
2.47
Points/Game
0.88
2.06
Goals/Game
1.00
0.76
Conceded/Game
1.29
76%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Flamengo
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atletico-MG
Away form
W
D
D
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Flamengo Wins
3
Draws
2
Atletico-MG Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.6
Atletico-MG0 – 4Flamengo
Atletico-MG1 – 1Flamengo
Flamengo1 – 0Atletico-MG
Flamengo0 – 0Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG2 – 4Flamengo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Flamengovs
Atletico-MG
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.50
0.70
Goals conceded / game
0.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.5%→Latest 60.3%+3.8 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.4%→Latest 48.1%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Flamengo's 10 matches and 4 of Atletico-MG's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?