Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Estádio Mineirão
Wed 18 Nov 2026 · 23:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.92
Draw
3.46
Away Win
2.42
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cruzeiro edge attack, Palmeiras edge defence, recent form and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Cruzeiro slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Palmeiras stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cruzeiro have secured five consecutive victories in their last five home outings, while Palmeiras remain unbeaten away from home with four draws and a solitary win in that same span. Cruzeiro have found the net in all five of their recent home matches yet have conceded goals in three of those encounters, having kept just two clean sheets during that period. Cruzeiro hold a slight advantage in attack, while Palmeiras rate stronger on defence, while form and head-to-head are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Cruzeiro's implied win probability has fallen by 1.9 percentage points, while Palmeiras's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Palmeiras unbeaten run
15
Cruzeiro points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Cruzeiro
No current absences reported
Palmeiras
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Cruzeiro win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. Palmeiras remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cruzeiro win
Latest market chance 32.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.5% → 32.6%
−1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.2% → 27.6%
+0.4 pts
Palmeiras win
Latest market chance 39.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
38.3% → 39.8%
+1.5 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
10 snapshots
+2+10−1Nov 4Nov 6Nov 8Nov 11Nov 13
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cruzeiro
Draw
Palmeiras
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
2nd
34
Games Played
34
1.76
Points/Game
2.15
1.62
Goals/Game
1.82
1.41
Conceded/Game
0.68
15.2
Shots/Game
15.5
5.4
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
Cruzeiro at home (17 matches) vs Palmeiras away (17 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.82
1.76
Goals/Game
1.53
1.06
Conceded/Game
0.71
59%
Win Rate
47%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cruzeiro
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Palmeiras
Away form
D
D
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cruzeiro Wins
1
Draws
2
Palmeiras Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
2026-05-172026
Palmeiras1 – 1Cruzeiro
2025-10-262025
Palmeiras0 – 0Cruzeiro
2025-06-012025
Cruzeiro2 – 1Palmeiras
2024-12-052024
Cruzeiro1 – 2Palmeiras
2024-07-212024
Palmeiras2 – 0Cruzeiro
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cruzeiro
vs
Palmeiras
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
76.6%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
54.2%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
33.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
58.4%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 53.9%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Nov 2Nov 5Nov 8Nov 10Nov 13
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 16 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.2%→Latest 58.4%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Nov 2Nov 5Nov 8Nov 10Nov 13
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 16 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Cruzeiro's 10 matches and 6 of Palmeiras's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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