Cruzeiro vs Bahia Head to Head | Brazil Serie A

Match Report

Full Time

3 – 2

Match Events

Cruzeiro

Bahia

19'

🟨 Nicolas Acevedo

32'

⚽ C. Olivera (Rodrigo)

Kaio Jorge (K. Arroyo) ⚽

45+2'

Kaio Jorge (Kaio Jorge) •

63'

Bruno Rodrigues (K. Arroyo) ⚽

69'

🟨 Caio Alexandre

Bruno Rodrigues 🟨

70'

Jonathan Jesus 🟨

76'

Kaio Jorge (L. Romero) ⚽

86'

90+5'

⚽ A. Veliz (Luciano Juba)

Kaua Moraes 🟨

90+8'

Match Statistics

45%

Ball Possession

55%

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Starting Lineups

Cruzeiro (4-2-3-1)

Otávio Costa

Fagner

Jonathan Jesus

Fabrício Bruno

Gabriel Rojas

Lucas Romero

Zé Lucas

Keny Arroyo

Bruno Rodrigues

Gerson

Kaio Jorge

Bahia (4-2-3-1)

Ronaldo

Marcos Victor

David Duarte

Kanu

Luciano Juba

Erick

Nicolás Acevedo

Cristian Olivera

Everton Ribeiro

Rodrigo Nestor

Alejo Véliz

Player Ratings

Cruzeiro

Kaio JorgeF9.2

Keny ArroyoM8.0

Gabriel RojasD7.7

Bahia

Alejo VélizF7.6

Cristian OliveraM7.5

Nicolás AcevedoM7.0

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

Data favours

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Cruzeiro a slight edge.

Leads 4 of 4 major categories

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Cruzeiro stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Cruzeiro stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Cruzeiro stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Cruzeiro stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Cruzeiro arrive at home with a perfect record in their last five outings, while Bahia have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away matches. The Minas Gerais side have scored in all five of their home fixtures but have kept just two clean sheets during that same period. Cruzeiro face three confirmed absences and one doubtful case, whereas Bahia have only one player ruled out for the upcoming BR1 clash. Cruzeiro rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Cruzeiro won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 10 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Bahia's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Cruzeiro's implied win probability has risen by 4.7 percentage points, while Bahia's implied win probability has fallen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Cruzeiro a slight edge.

Pre-Match Context

Notable Numbers

Cruzeiro unbeaten run

Cruzeiro points from last 5 matches

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Strong shift towards Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Cruzeiro win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.

Movement strength: Strong

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Cruzeiro win

Latest market chance 55.6%

Strong shortening

Market chance increased

50.8% → 55.6%

+4.8 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 23.1%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

25.3% → 23.1%

−2.2 pts

Bahia win

Latest market chance 21.3%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

23.9% → 21.3%

−2.6 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

8 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Cruzeiro

Draw

Bahia

7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Cruzeiro

Bahia

Season Profile

This season

3rd

League Position

6th

Games Played

1.73

Points/Game

1.61

1.58

Goals/Game

1.45

1.39

Conceded/Game

1.27

15.2

Shots/Game

14.2

5.4

Shots on Target

4.6

Home vs Away Context

Cruzeiro at home (17 matches) vs Bahia away (17 matches)

2.00

Points/Game

1.35

1.76

Goals/Game

1.41

1.06

Conceded/Game

1.53

59%

Win Rate

35%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Cruzeiro

Home form

Won 5 straight at home

2.2

Goals scored
per match

0.6

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Bahia

Away form

2W 1D 2L in last 5 away

1.4

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Cruzeiro Wins

Draws

Bahia Wins

Avg Goals

3.2

2026-05-102026

Bahia1 – 2Cruzeiro

2025-09-162025

Bahia1 – 2Cruzeiro

2025-04-182025

Cruzeiro3 – 0Bahia

2024-10-192024

Cruzeiro1 – 1Bahia

2024-06-232024

Bahia4 – 1Cruzeiro

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Cruzeiro

Bahia

Recent Scoring Profile

2.00

Goals scored / game

1.60

1.40

Goals conceded / game

1.40

7/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

6/10

7/10

Both Teams Scored

6/10

0/10

Failed to Score

2/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

81.6%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

61.5%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

40.5%

BTTSBoth teams score

60.5%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 56.6%→Latest 61.3%+4.7 pts

Strong move towards 3+ goals

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 8 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 58.4%→Latest 60.5%+2.1 pts

Notable move towards both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 8 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

5 of Cruzeiro's 10 matches and 5 of Bahia's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Cruzeiro vs Bahia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis