Coritiba vs Santos Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Wed 18 Nov 2026 · 22:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.17
Draw
3.61
Away Win
2.20
Match Prediction
Data favours
Santos
Santos rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Santos a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Santos stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Santos stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Santos slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Santos stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Santos have secured three away wins from their last five outings, while Coritiba sit at home with two victories and two draws in that same span. Coritiba have scored in four of their last five home matches, though they have kept two clean sheets in that same period. Santos rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Coritiba won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 17 May 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Santos's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Coritiba's implied win probability has fallen by 3.5 percentage points, while Santos's implied win probability has risen by 3.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Santos a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Santos unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
Team Availability
Coritiba
No current absences reported
Santos
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Santos
Santos's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Santos win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Coritiba win
Latest market chance 29.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
33.0% → 29.5%
−3.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.0% → 26.9%
−0.1 pts
Santos win
Latest market chance 43.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
40.0% → 43.6%
+3.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Coritiba
Draw
Santos
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CoritibaSantos
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
9th
34
Games Played
34
1.24
Points/Game
1.38
1.18
Goals/Game
1.47
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.44
11.4
Shots/Game
13.9
3.4
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Coritiba at home (18 matches) vs Santos away (17 matches)
1.44
Points/Game
1.29
1.33
Goals/Game
1.59
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.65
39%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Coritiba
Home form
D
D
L
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Santos
Away form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Coritiba Wins
1
Draws
1
Santos Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Santos0 – 3Coritiba
Santos2 – 1Coritiba
Coritiba0 – 0Santos
Coritiba1 – 2Santos
Santos2 – 1Coritiba
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Coritibavs
Santos
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.30
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.1%→Latest 55.0%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.2%→Latest 58.4%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Coritiba's 10 matches and 7 of Santos's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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