Coritiba vs Gremio Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Estádio Couto Pereira
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.22
Draw
3.53
Away Win
3.29
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Coritiba
Gremio
Tinga 🟨
40'
90+2'
⚽ Martin Braithwaite (Francis Amuzu)
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
12
Total Shots
17
4
Shots on Goal
6
5
Corner Kicks
10
10
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Coritiba (4-2-3-1)
Pedro Luccas
Tinga
Tiago Cóser
Jacy
Bruno Melo
N. Fonseca
S. Gómez
J. Lavega
Josué
Pedro Rocha
Paulo Roberto
Gremio (3-4-3)
Weverton
Gustavo Martins
F. Balbuena
Wallace
Diego Caito
E. Noriega
M. Villasanti
Marlon
C. Pavón
Carlos Vinícius
F. Amuzu
Player Ratings ?
Coritiba
Pedro LuccasG7.3
JosuéM7.2
JacyD7.2
Gremio
M. BraithwaiteF7.7
WallaceD7.6
C. PavónF7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Coritiba edge recent form and attack, Gremio edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Coritiba stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Coritiba stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Gremio stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gremio have struggled on the road with just a solitary draw in their last five away outings, while Coritiba look more settled at home having secured two wins from their most recent five matches. Coritiba have found the net in each of their last five home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Three players are unavailable for Coritiba, whereas Gremio face the absence of two squad members alongside two others listed as doubtful. Coritiba rate stronger on form and attack, while Gremio rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Gremio won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 26 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Coritiba's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 9-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Gremio losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Gremio points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 9 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Coritiba win
Latest market chance 44.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.8% → 44.3%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.2% → 27.7%
−0.5 pts
Gremio win
Latest market chance 28.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.0% → 28.0%
±0.0 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
10 snapshots
+2.5+1.250−1.25Oct 17Oct 19Oct 21Oct 24Oct 26
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Coritiba
Draw
Gremio
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Coritiba
Gremio
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
18th
31
Games Played
31
1.26
Points/Game
1.00
1.23
Goals/Game
1.10
1.58
Conceded/Game
1.42
11.4
Shots/Game
12.0
3.4
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Coritiba at home (18 matches) vs Gremio away (17 matches)
1.44
Points/Game
0.47
1.33
Goals/Game
0.65
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.53
39%
Win Rate
6%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Coritiba
Home form
W
W
L
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Gremio
Away form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Coritiba Wins
0
Draws
1
Gremio Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
2026-04-262026
Gremio1 – 0Coritiba
2023-11-012023
Coritiba1 – 2Gremio
2023-06-252023
Gremio5 – 1Coritiba
2021-01-312020
Coritiba1 – 1Gremio
2020-10-072020
Gremio2 – 1Coritiba
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Coritiba
vs
Gremio
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
74.2%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
50.3%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
29.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
54.8%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.5%→Latest 50.3%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 17Oct 19Oct 21Oct 24Oct 26
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 9 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 54.7%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 17Oct 19Oct 21Oct 24Oct 26
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 9 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Coritiba's 10 matches and 3 of Gremio's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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