Corinthians vs Vitoria Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Neo Quimica Arena
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.66
Draw
3.80
Away Win
5.75
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Corinthians
Vitoria
45+1'
⚽ Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira
53'
🟨 Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira
Yuri Alberto ⚽ (P)
66'
Rodrigo Garro 🟨
90+13'
Match Statistics ?
68%
Ball Possession
32%
21
Total Shots
5
6
Shots on Goal
5
9
Corner Kicks
1
10
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Corinthians (4-2-3-1)
Hugo Souza
Matheuzinho
Gabriel Paulista
Gustavo Henrique
F. Angileri
Andre
Breno
Vitinho
R. Garro
J. Lingard
Yuri Alberto
Vitoria (4-1-4-1)
Lucas Arcanjo
Mateusinho
E. Brítez
Luan Cândido
Jamerson
E. Martínez
Erick
Matheuzinho
Caíque
D. Tarzia
Rene
Player Ratings ?
Corinthians
F. AngileriD7.2
Gabriel PaulistaD7.1
BrenoM7.0
Vitoria
Lucas ArcanjoG7.7
ReneF7.0
Luan CândidoD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Corinthians edge defence and head-to-head, Vitoria edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Vitoria stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Vitoria slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Corinthians slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Corinthians stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides arrive with identical poor recent records, as Vitoria have won zero of their last five away outings while Corinthians have also secured just a single draw from five home matches. Corinthians have found the net in three of their last five home games but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. The host side faces two confirmed absences, whereas Vitoria must manage eight confirmed out-counts alongside one player listed as doubtful. Vitoria rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Corinthians rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 19 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 8-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Vitoria losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Corinthians points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 8 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Corinthians win
Latest market chance 57.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
57.0% → 57.4%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.2% → 25.3%
+0.1 pts
Vitoria win
Latest market chance 17.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
17.8% → 17.3%
−0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Corinthians
Draw
Vitoria
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CorinthiansVitoria
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
14th
30
Games Played
30
1.07
Points/Game
1.20
1.03
Goals/Game
1.10
1.27
Conceded/Game
1.47
13.6
Shots/Game
11.8
4.0
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Corinthians at home (17 matches) vs Vitoria away (18 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
0.33
1.06
Goals/Game
0.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.06
35%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Corinthians
Home form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight at home
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Vitoria
Away form
L
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Corinthians Wins
3
Draws
2
Vitoria Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.8
Vitoria0 – 0Corinthians
Vitoria0 – 1Corinthians
Corinthians0 – 0Vitoria
Vitoria1 – 2Corinthians
Corinthians3 – 2Vitoria
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Corinthiansvs
Vitoria
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.3%→Latest 45.4%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.7%→Latest 46.5%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Corinthians's 10 matches and 2 of Vitoria's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?