Corinthians vs Mirassol Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Neo Quimica Arena
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.89
Draw
3.58
Away Win
4.38
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Corinthians
Mirassol
24'
🟥 Bruno Santos
43'
🟨 Edson Carioca
45+5'
🟨 Rafael Guanaes
Matheus Bidu (Matheuzinho) ⚽
58'
Andre Ramalho 🟨
76'
Kaio Cesar (R. Garro) ⚽
80'
Matheuzinho 🟨
83'
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
35
Total Shots
1
8
Shots on Goal
0
4
Corner Kicks
2
13
Fouls
8
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Corinthians (4-2-3-1)
Hugo Souza
Matheuzinho
André Ramalho
Gustavo Henrique
Fabrizio Angileri
André Luiz
Breno Bidon
Kaio César
Rodrigo Garro
Matheus Bidu
Yuri Alberto
Mirassol (4-2-3-1)
Walter
Igor Formiga
João Victor
Willian Machado
Reinaldo
Wallisson Luiz
Neto Moura
Edson Carioca
Eduardo
Alesson
Bruno Santos
Player Ratings ?
Corinthians
Kaio CésarM8.3
Fabrizio AngileriD7.9
MatheuzinhoD7.6
Mirassol
Neto MouraM7.2
WalterG6.9
AlessonM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Mirassol
Mirassol rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; Corinthians edge attack, giving Mirassol an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mirassol stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Corinthians slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Mirassol stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Mirassol stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mirassol have recorded just one win from their last five away matches, while Corinthians are winless in four of their last five home outings. Corinthians have scored in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same sample. The hosts face eight confirmed absences, whereas Mirassol have one certain absence and one player listed as doubtful. Mirassol rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Corinthians hold a slight advantage in attack. Mirassol won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 4 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 3 encounters to Corinthians's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Corinthians's implied win probability has fallen by 7.7 percentage points, while Mirassol's implied win probability has risen by 5.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Mirassol.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
8
Corinthians losing run
2/3
One-goal H2H results
1
Corinthians points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Corinthians
Corinthians's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Corinthians win as less likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Corinthians win
Latest market chance 51.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
59.5% → 51.8%
−7.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
24.4% → 26.6%
+2.2 pts
Mirassol win
Latest market chance 21.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
16.1% → 21.6%
+5.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Corinthians
Draw
Mirassol
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CorinthiansMirassol
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
15th
32
Games Played
32
1.03
Points/Game
1.16
1.06
Goals/Game
1.16
1.31
Conceded/Game
1.41
13.6
Shots/Game
13.4
4.0
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Corinthians at home (17 matches) vs Mirassol away (17 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
0.76
1.06
Goals/Game
0.88
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.53
35%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Corinthians
Home form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Mirassol
Away form
D
L
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Corinthians Wins
1
Draws
0
Mirassol Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Mirassol2 – 1Corinthians
Corinthians3 – 0Mirassol
Mirassol2 – 1Corinthians
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Corinthiansvs
Mirassol
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.00
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.2%→Latest 47.3%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 45.3%→Latest 50.0%+4.7 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Corinthians's 10 matches and 4 of Mirassol's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?