Corinthians vs Botafogo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Neo Quimica Arena
Thu 19 Nov 2026 · 00:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.81
Draw
3.81
Away Win
4.26
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Corinthians edge attack, Botafogo edge recent form and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Botafogo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Corinthians stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Botafogo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Botafogo arrive for this BR1 fixture with a poor away record, managing just one draw from their last five matches on the road, while Corinthians have secured only a solitary win in their own home games over the same span. At home, Corinthians have found the net in four of their last five outings but have conceded in all but one of those same matches. Botafogo rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Corinthians rate stronger on attack, while defence is closely matched. Botafogo won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 17 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Corinthians's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 14-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
8
Corinthians losing run
1
Botafogo points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Corinthians
No current absences reported
Botafogo
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 14 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Corinthians win
Latest market chance 51.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
50.6% → 51.0%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.2% → 26.2%
±0.0 pts
Botafogo win
Latest market chance 22.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.2% → 22.8%
−0.4 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
9 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Nov 5Nov 7Nov 9Nov 11Nov 13
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Corinthians
Draw
Botafogo
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Corinthians
Botafogo
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
11th
34
Games Played
34
1.09
Points/Game
1.24
1.06
Goals/Game
1.35
1.24
Conceded/Game
1.56
13.6
Shots/Game
14.1
4.0
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Corinthians at home (17 matches) vs Botafogo away (17 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
0.88
1.06
Goals/Game
1.12
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.82
35%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Corinthians
Home form
L
L
L
D
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Botafogo
Away form
L
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Corinthians Wins
0
Draws
2
Botafogo Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.8
2026-05-172026
Botafogo3 – 1Corinthians
2025-11-302025
Corinthians2 – 2Botafogo
2025-07-262025
Botafogo1 – 1Corinthians
2024-09-152024
Botafogo2 – 1Corinthians
2024-06-022024
Corinthians0 – 1Botafogo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Corinthians
vs
Botafogo
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
73.7%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
50.5%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
29.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
52.6%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.8%→Latest 50.5%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Nov 2Nov 5Nov 8Nov 10Nov 13
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 17 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 52.6%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 17 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Corinthians's 10 matches and 6 of Botafogo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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