Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena Condá
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 23:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
6.46
Draw
4.83
Away Win
1.45
Match Prediction
Data favours
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Vasco DA Gama an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama have secured three victories in their last five away fixtures, while Chapecoense-sc have managed just two wins from five at home during this period. Chapecoense-sc have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have only kept one clean sheet in that same run. Vasco DA Gama rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 5 February 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Chapecoense-sc's implied win probability has fallen by 3.7 percentage points, while Vasco DA Gama's implied win probability has risen by 6.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Vasco DA Gama.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Chapecoense-sc
No current absences reported
Vasco DA Gama
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Vasco DA Gama win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Chapecoense-sc win
Latest market chance 14.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
18.5% → 14.8%
−3.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
23.1% → 20.7%
−2.4 pts
Vasco DA Gama win
Latest market chance 64.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
58.4% → 64.5%
+6.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Chapecoense-sc
Draw
Vasco DA Gama
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Chapecoense-scVasco DA Gama
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
13th
33
Games Played
33
0.64
Points/Game
1.24
1.00
Goals/Game
1.30
2.06
Conceded/Game
1.52
12.4
Shots/Game
17.4
3.5
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Chapecoense-sc at home (16 matches) vs Vasco DA Gama away (16 matches)
0.88
Points/Game
0.88
1.38
Goals/Game
1.12
2.25
Conceded/Game
1.62
19%
Win Rate
19%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Chapecoense-sc
Home form
W
L
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Vasco DA Gama
Away form
L
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Chapecoense-sc Wins
0
Draws
3
Vasco DA Gama Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Vasco DA Gama1 – 1Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama1 – 1Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc1 – 2Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama3 – 1Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc1 – 1Vasco DA Gama
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Chapecoense-scvs
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.90
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.20
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.1%→Latest 58.8%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.5%→Latest 53.9%−2.6 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of Chapecoense-sc's 10 matches and 6 of Vasco DA Gama's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?