Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Arena Condá
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.50
Draw
3.74
Away Win
1.78
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Chapecoense-sc
Fluminense
Yannick Bolasie (Giovanni Augusto) ⚽
9'
30'
⚽ Claudio Rodrigues Gomes (Hulk)
Camilo Reijers de Oliveira 🟨
37'
Giovanni Augusto (Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira) ⚽
56'
Yago Felipe 🟨
57'
90+2'
🟨 Guilherme Arana
Match Statistics ?
26%
Ball Possession
74%
6
Total Shots
16
3
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
6
12
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Chapecoense-sc (4-2-3-1)
Anderson
Bruno Tubarão
Doma
João Paulo
Bruno Pacheco
Camilo
Yago Felipe
Marcinho
Giovanni Augusto
Garcez
Y. Bolasie
Fluminense (4-2-3-1)
Fábio
Guga
Ignacio
Igor Rabello
Guilherme Arana
Nonato
Hércules
Wesley Nata
PH Ganso
K. Serna
Hulk
Player Ratings ?
Fluminense
GugaD7.8
HérculesM7.1
RiquelmeF7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Fluminense
Fluminense rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Fluminense an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Fluminense stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Fluminense stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Fluminense stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Fluminense stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Fluminense have found it difficult away from home recently, managing just a solitary win alongside two draws and two defeats in their last five outings, while Chapecoense-sc have struggled at the top end of town with one victory, one draw and three losses across their most recent five matches. Chapecoense-sc have found the net in four of their last five home fixtures but have only kept a clean sheet once during that same period. There are several availability concerns for Chapecoense-sc with four players ruled out, while Fluminense face three confirmed absences and one player listed as doubtful ahead of the clash. Fluminense rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Fluminense won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 27 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Chapecoense-sc's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Chapecoense-sc's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points, while Fluminense's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Fluminense.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Fluminense
Fluminense's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Fluminense win as more likely than it did 7 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Chapecoense-sc win
Latest market chance 22.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.7% → 22.2%
−0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 25.9%
−0.6 pts
Fluminense win
Latest market chance 51.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
50.8% → 51.9%
+1.1 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
8 snapshots
+2+10−1Oct 17Oct 19Oct 21Oct 22Oct 24
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Chapecoense-sc
Draw
Fluminense
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Chapecoense-sc
Fluminense
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
4th
30
Games Played
31
0.60
Points/Game
1.65
1.00
Goals/Game
1.58
2.07
Conceded/Game
1.26
12.4
Shots/Game
14.6
3.5
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away Context
Chapecoense-sc at home (16 matches) vs Fluminense away (17 matches)
0.88
Points/Game
1.06
1.38
Goals/Game
1.41
2.25
Conceded/Game
1.47
19%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Chapecoense-sc
Home form
L
D
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Fluminense
Away form
D
D
L
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Chapecoense-sc Wins
0
Draws
2
Fluminense Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
2026-04-272026
Fluminense2 – 1Chapecoense-sc
2021-12-102021
Fluminense3 – 0Chapecoense-sc
2021-09-082021
Chapecoense-sc1 – 2Fluminense
2019-10-262019
Fluminense1 – 1Chapecoense-sc
2019-06-142019
Chapecoense-sc1 – 1Fluminense
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Chapecoense-sc
vs
Fluminense
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.90
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.40
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
74.3%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
51.3%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
30.9%
BTTSBoth teams score
53.6%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 51.2%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 17Oct 19Oct 21Oct 22Oct 24
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 7 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 53.3%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 7 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Chapecoense-sc's 10 matches and 3 of Fluminense's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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