Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena Condá
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.12
Draw
3.69
Away Win
1.92
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 4
Match Events ?
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico Paranaense
6'
⚽ Leonardo Caetano Silva (Gilberto)
29'
⚽ Luiz Gustavo
31'
⚽ Kevin Viveros (Gilberto)
Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior 🟨
40'
João Paulo 🟨
45'
70'
🟨 Gilberto
Maurício Garcez (Yannick Bolasie) ⚽
72'
78'
⚽ Kevin Viveros (Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio)
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
21
Total Shots
11
7
Shots on Goal
8
6
Corner Kicks
7
17
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Chapecoense-sc (4-2-3-1)
Anderson
Dudu
Kauan Faria Gomes
João Paulo
Bruno Pacheco
Yago Felipe
Bruno Matias
Marcinho
Giovanni Augusto
Garcez
Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
Mycael
Arthur Dias
J. Aguirre
L. Esquivel
Gilberto
Jádson
Luiz Gustavo
S. Mendoza
Leozinho
João Cruz
K. Viveros
Player Ratings ?
Atletico Paranaense
GarcezM7.9
Y. BolasieF7.3
Giovanni AugustoM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Atletico Paranaense a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atletico Paranaense stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atletico Paranaense stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense have shown resilience on the road with two wins from their last five away outings, while Chapecoense-sc struggle at home with just a single victory in that same span. Chapecoense-sc have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only managed one clean sheet during that period. The hosts face five confirmed absences ahead of this clash, whereas Atletico Paranaense will be without two players for the encounter. Atletico Paranaense rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Atletico Paranaense won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 12 April 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Chapecoense-sc's 0, with 4 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Chapecoense-sc's implied win probability has fallen by 3.1 percentage points, while Atletico Paranaense's implied win probability has risen by 4.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Atletico Paranaense a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Atletico Paranaense win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Chapecoense-sc win
Latest market chance 24.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
27.1% → 24.0%
−3.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.5% → 26.5%
−1.0 pts
Atletico Paranaense win
Latest market chance 49.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
45.4% → 49.5%
+4.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Chapecoense-sc
Draw
Atletico Paranaense
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Chapecoense-scAtletico Paranaense
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
4th
28
Games Played
29
0.64
Points/Game
1.72
1.04
Goals/Game
1.55
2.04
Conceded/Game
1.17
12.4
Shots/Game
13.3
3.5
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Chapecoense-sc at home (16 matches) vs Atletico Paranaense away (17 matches)
0.88
Points/Game
1.29
1.38
Goals/Game
1.35
2.25
Conceded/Game
1.47
19%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Chapecoense-sc
Home form
L
L
D
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atletico Paranaense
Away form
D
W
W
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Chapecoense-sc Wins
0
Draws
4
Atletico Paranaense Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Atletico Paranaense2 – 0Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc1 – 1Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense2 – 2Chapecoense-sc
Atletico Paranaense1 – 1Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc1 – 1Atletico Paranaense
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Chapecoense-scvs
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.90
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.50
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 32 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.9%→Latest 50.5%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.5%→Latest 53.9%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Chapecoense-sc's 10 matches and 1 of Atletico Paranaense's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?