Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Estádio Nilton Santos
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 22:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.32
Draw
5.82
Away Win
9.14
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
Tiquinho Soares (Matheus Martins) ⚽
7'
14'
🟨 Kauan Faria
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
20
Total Shots
9
11
Shots on Goal
0
4
Corner Kicks
4
9
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
10
Starting Lineups
Botafogo (4-2-3-1)
Gabriel Batista
Vitinho
N. Ferraresi
Marçal
Alex Telles
Allan
Danilo Santos
H. Ziyech
Álvaro Montoro
Matheus Martins
Tiquinho Soares
Chapecoense-sc (4-4-2)
Anderson
Bruno Tubarão
Kauan Faria Gomes
Doma
Bruno Pacheco
Garcez
Yago Felipe
Camilo
Fernando
Giovanni Augusto
Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira
Player Ratings ?
Botafogo
Tiquinho SoaresF8.2
Alex TellesD8.0
Matheus MartinsM7.7
Chapecoense-sc
AndersonG8.8
CamiloM7.1
Y. BolasieF7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Botafogo edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Chapecoense-sc edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chapecoense-sc slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Botafogo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Botafogo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Botafogo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc have recorded just one win and drawn once from their last five away outings, while Botafogo sit at the opposite end with a single victory and two draws in their most recent five home matches. At this venue, Botafogo have found the net in four of their last five contests but have only managed a solitary clean sheet during that same period. Botafogo face four confirmed absences ahead of the clash, whereas Chapecoense-sc are dealing with five players ruled out for selection. Chapecoense-sc hold a slight advantage in form, while Botafogo rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Botafogo won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 18 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Chapecoense-sc's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Botafogo's implied win probability has risen by 4.3 percentage points, while Chapecoense-sc's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Chapecoense-sc losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
Advertisement
Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Botafogo
Botafogo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Botafogo win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Botafogo win
Latest market chance 71.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
66.9% → 71.2%
+4.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 17.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
19.7% → 17.6%
−2.1 pts
Chapecoense-sc win
Latest market chance 11.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
13.4% → 11.3%
−2.1 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
7 snapshots
+4.5+2.250−2.25Oct 11Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 17
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Botafogo
Draw
Chapecoense-sc
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
20th
30
Games Played
29
1.20
Points/Game
0.62
1.43
Goals/Game
1.03
1.60
Conceded/Game
2.10
14.1
Shots/Game
12.4
5.1
Shots on Target
3.5
Home vs Away Context
Botafogo at home (17 matches) vs Chapecoense-sc away (17 matches)
1.59
Points/Game
0.41
1.59
Goals/Game
0.65
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.88
41%
Win Rate
6%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Botafogo
Home form
L
D
D
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Chapecoense-sc
Away form
L
L
W
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Botafogo Wins
4
Draws
1
Chapecoense-sc Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.6
2026-04-182026
Chapecoense-sc1 – 4Botafogo
2019-11-272019
Chapecoense-sc0 – 1Botafogo
2019-08-272019
Botafogo0 – 0Chapecoense-sc
2018-11-152018
Chapecoense-sc0 – 1Botafogo
2018-07-262018
Botafogo1 – 0Chapecoense-sc
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Botafogo
vs
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded / game
2.20
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
82.8%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
63.2%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
43.0%
BTTSBoth teams score
53.2%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.5%→Latest 63.2%+3.7 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Oct 11Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 17
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 53.2%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Botafogo's 10 matches and 2 of Chapecoense-sc's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
Loading poll…