Botafogo vs Atletico-MG Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Thu 05 Nov 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.68
Draw
4.11
Away Win
4.95
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
C. Medina 🟨
14'
Edenilson (Vitinho) ⚽
19'
47'
🟨 T. Perez
Marcal 🟨
75'
77'
🟨 K. Pascini
Match Statistics ?
33%
Ball Possession
67%
12
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Goal
3
4
Corner Kicks
4
17
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Botafogo (3-5-2)
Gabriel Batista
Nahuel Ferraresi
Gabriel Justino
Marçal
Vitinho
Edenilson
Huguinho
Cristian Medina
Paulinho
Danilo Pereira
Tiquinho Soares
Atletico-MG (4-2-3-1)
Everson
Ángelo Preciado
Vitão
Léo Duarte
Kauã Pascini
Tomás Pérez
Mamady Cissé
Gustavo Scarpa
Alexsander
Dudu
Cauã Campos Soares
Player Ratings ?
Botafogo
Nahuel FerraresiD7.5
Gabriel BatistaG7.3
VitinhoM7.3
Atletico-MG
Gustavo ScarpaM8.5
Léo DuarteD7.9
AlexsanderM7.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Botafogo edge defence and head-to-head, Atletico-MG edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atletico-MG stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atletico-MG slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Botafogo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Botafogo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Botafogo have secured two victories from their last five home outings, while Atletico-MG have drawn three times and suffered two defeats in their last five away fixtures. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have kept just two clean sheets during the same period. Botafogo face three confirmed absences alongside one doubtful selection, whereas Atletico-MG must manage five confirmed out-counts with no doubts attached to their squad. Atletico-MG rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Botafogo rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Botafogo's implied win probability has risen by 14.1 percentage points, while Atletico-MG's implied win probability has fallen by 11.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Botafogo losing run
3
Atletico-MG points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Botafogo
Botafogo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Botafogo win as more likely than it did 10 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Botafogo win
Latest market chance 57.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
42.9% → 57.0%
+14.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
26.2% → 23.5%
−2.7 pts
Atletico-MG win
Latest market chance 19.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
30.9% → 19.5%
−11.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Botafogo
Draw
Atletico-MG
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BotafogoAtletico-MG
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
7th
33
Games Played
33
1.18
Points/Game
1.52
1.36
Goals/Game
1.33
1.61
Conceded/Game
1.18
14.1
Shots/Game
13.8
5.1
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Botafogo at home (17 matches) vs Atletico-MG away (17 matches)
1.59
Points/Game
0.88
1.59
Goals/Game
1.00
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.29
41%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Botafogo
Home form
D
D
W
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atletico-MG
Away form
D
D
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Botafogo Wins
2
Draws
2
Atletico-MG Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.4
Atletico-MG1 – 1Botafogo
Botafogo1 – 0Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG1 – 0Botafogo
Atletico-MG0 – 0Botafogo
Botafogo3 – 0Atletico-MG
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Botafogovs
Atletico-MG
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 55.3%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 55.0%−2.9 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Botafogo's 10 matches and 6 of Atletico-MG's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?