Bahia vs Sao Paulo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.02
Draw
3.57
Away Win
3.64
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Rodrigo Nestor (Jean Lucas) ⚽
6'
erick pulga (Marcos Victor) ⚽
10'
43'
⚽ Lucas Moura (Jonathan Calleri)
45+5'
⚽ Damian Bobadilla
Marcos Victor 🟨
69'
70'
🟨 Jose Monteiro
Marcos Victor (Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho) ⚽
81'
90+1'
🟨 Gustavo Santana
90+2'
🟨 Lucas Moura
90+3'
🟨 Dorival Silvestre Júnior
David Duarte 🟨
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
13
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Goal
6
7
Corner Kicks
11
12
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Bahia (5-3-2)
Ronaldo
C. Olivera
Marcos Victor
David Duarte
Marco Moreno
Luciano Juba
Jean Lucas
N. Acevedo
Rodrigo Nestor
Erick Pulga
A. Véliz
Sao Paulo (3-4-2-1)
Rafael
Newton
R. Arboleda
Sabino
Pedro Lima
D. Bobadilla
Pablo Maia
Wendell
Luciano
Lucas Moura
J. Calleri
Player Ratings ?
Bahia
Erick PulgaF7.7
Rodrigo NestorM7.4
Marcos VictorD7.3
Sao Paulo
D. BobadillaM7.2
Pedro LimaM7.2
Lucas MouraM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bahia edge attack, Sao Paulo edge defence and head-to-head, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Bahia stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sao Paulo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sao Paulo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sao Paulo have struggled on the road with just a single draw from their last five away fixtures, while Bahia boast an encouraging recent record at home with three wins in that same span. Bahia have found the net in three of their last five home outings and managed two clean sheets during that period. One player is unavailable for Bahia, whereas Sao Paulo face a more significant squad challenge with six players out and one listed as doubtful. Bahia rate stronger on attack, while Sao Paulo rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while form is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Bahia's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, while Sao Paulo's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Bahia unbeaten run
1
Sao Paulo points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sao Paulo win as more likely than it did 9 days ago. Bahia remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bahia win
Latest market chance 46.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
47.9% → 46.6%
−1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.1% → 26.7%
−0.4 pts
Sao Paulo win
Latest market chance 26.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.0% → 26.7%
+1.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bahia
Draw
Sao Paulo
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BahiaSao Paulo
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
10th
32
Games Played
32
1.56
Points/Game
1.34
1.41
Goals/Game
1.16
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.12
14.2
Shots/Game
13.6
4.6
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Bahia at home (17 matches) vs Sao Paulo away (17 matches)
1.76
Points/Game
0.59
1.53
Goals/Game
0.82
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.53
47%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bahia
Home form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sao Paulo
Away form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bahia Wins
1
Draws
1
Sao Paulo Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Sao Paulo2 – 2Bahia
Sao Paulo2 – 0Bahia
Bahia2 – 1Sao Paulo
Bahia0 – 3Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo3 – 1Bahia
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bahiavs
Sao Paulo
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.5%→Latest 50.3%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.6%→Latest 54.6%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Bahia's 10 matches and 5 of Sao Paulo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?