Bahia vs Mirassol Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.69
Draw
4.18
Away Win
4.79
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Bahia
Mirassol
35'
🟨 Chico Kim
36'
🟨 Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune
Luciano ⚽ (P)
38'
Jean Lucas 🟨
63'
78'
🟨 Carlos Eduardo
90+3'
🟨 Neto Moura
90+7'
• Reinaldo
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
16
Total Shots
10
2
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
2
13
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Bahia (4-3-3)
Ronaldo
Marcos Victor
David Duarte
Marco Moreno
Luciano Juba
Jean Lucas
Caio Alexandre
Rodrigo Nestor
C. Olivera
A. Véliz
Erick Pulga
Mirassol (4-3-3)
Walter
Igor Formiga
Lucas Oliveira
Willian Machado
Reinaldo
Denilson
Neto Moura
Chico
Gustavo Silva
Bruno Santos
Alesson
Player Ratings ?
Bahia
David DuarteD8.0
Luciano JubaD8.0
Marcos VictorD7.7
Mirassol
Igor FormigaD7.0
Willian MachadoD7.0
DenilsonM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bahia edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bahia stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bahia slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bahia stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bahia slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bahia have enjoyed an unbeaten run at home over their last five outings, while Mirassol have secured just a solitary victory in their away fixtures during the same period. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home matches and kept two clean sheets in that span. Bahia face one confirmed absence, whereas Mirassol are dealing with two players ruled out ahead of the clash. Bahia rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head. Bahia won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 11 April 2026, having won 1 of the last 3 encounters to Mirassol's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.67 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Bahia's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points, while Mirassol's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Mirassol
Mirassol's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Mirassol win as more likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Bahia remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bahia win
Latest market chance 55.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
55.8% → 55.2%
−0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.2% → 24.0%
−0.2 pts
Mirassol win
Latest market chance 20.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
20.0% → 20.8%
+0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bahia
Draw
Mirassol
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BahiaMirassol
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
15th
29
Games Played
29
1.59
Points/Game
1.14
1.48
Goals/Game
1.17
1.24
Conceded/Game
1.48
14.2
Shots/Game
13.4
4.6
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Bahia at home (17 matches) vs Mirassol away (17 matches)
1.76
Points/Game
0.76
1.53
Goals/Game
0.88
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.53
47%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bahia
Home form
W
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Mirassol
Away form
L
D
L
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bahia Wins
1
Draws
1
Mirassol Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.7
Mirassol1 – 2Bahia
Mirassol5 – 1Bahia
Bahia1 – 1Mirassol
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bahiavs
Mirassol
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.3%→Latest 55.6%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.5%→Latest 55.7%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Bahia's 10 matches and 1 of Mirassol's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?