Bahia vs Flamengo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.28
Draw
3.81
Away Win
2.12
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Bahia
Flamengo
3'
🟨 Erick Pulgar
Cristian Olivera 🟨
41'
48'
🟨 Léo Pereira
Jean Lucas 🟨
51'
64'
⚽ (P) Jorginho
73'
⚽ Gonzalo Plata (Samuel Lino)
78'
⚽ Lucas Paquetá (Guillermo Varela)
Marco Moreno 🟨
86'
Román Gómez 🟨
89'
Match Statistics ?
36%
Ball Possession
64%
9
Total Shots
21
3
Shots on Goal
15
4
Corner Kicks
14
12
Fouls
9
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
11
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Bahia (5-3-2)
Ronaldo
C. Olivera
Marcos Victor
David Duarte
Marco Moreno
Luciano Juba
Jean Lucas
N. Acevedo
Rodrigo Nestor
Erick Pulga
A. Véliz
Flamengo (4-2-3-1)
A. Rossi
G. Varela
Léo Ortiz
Léo Pereira
Emerson Royal
Jorginho
E. Pulgar
G. Plata
J. Carrascal
Samuel Lino
Pedro
Player Ratings ?
Bahia
RonaldoG8.0
AdemirF6.7
Caio AlexandreM6.6
Flamengo
G. PlataM8.2
JorginhoM7.8
Lucas PaquetáM7.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Flamengo edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Flamengo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Flamengo arrive at this venue with a mixed away record of two wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Bahia have secured three victories without defeat in their home matches over the same period. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home games but have kept just two clean sheets during that span. There is one player unavailable for Bahia, whereas Flamengo face a deeper squad disruption with four players out of action. Flamengo rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Flamengo won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 19 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Bahia's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Bahia's implied win probability has fallen by 4.5 percentage points, while Flamengo's implied win probability has risen by 6.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Flamengo unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Flamengo
Flamengo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Flamengo win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bahia win
Latest market chance 29.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
33.9% → 29.4%
−4.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.6% → 25.2%
−1.4 pts
Flamengo win
Latest market chance 45.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
39.4% → 45.4%
+6.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bahia
Draw
Flamengo
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BahiaFlamengo
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
2nd
30
Games Played
30
1.63
Points/Game
2.13
1.47
Goals/Game
1.93
1.20
Conceded/Game
0.83
14.2
Shots/Game
16.1
4.6
Shots on Target
5.9
Home vs Away Context
Bahia at home (17 matches) vs Flamengo away (17 matches)
1.76
Points/Game
2.00
1.53
Goals/Game
2.12
1.12
Conceded/Game
0.94
47%
Win Rate
59%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bahia
Home form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Flamengo
Away form
D
W
L
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bahia Wins
1
Draws
0
Flamengo Wins
4
Avg Goals
1.8
Flamengo2 – 0Bahia
Bahia1 – 0Flamengo
Flamengo1 – 0Bahia
Bahia0 – 2Flamengo
Flamengo2 – 1Bahia
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bahiavs
Flamengo
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 57.7%+3.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.6%→Latest 60.6%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Bahia's 10 matches and 2 of Flamengo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?