Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena da Baixada
Wed 04 Nov 2026 · 22:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.12
Draw
3.55
Away Win
3.53
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
Jadson 🟨
1'
S. Mendoza (Luiz Gustavo) ⚽
22'
55'
🟨 A. Lescano
61'
⚽ (OG) F. Aguirre (Cuiabano)
63'
⚽ Bruno Duarte (J. Rodriguez)
67'
⚽ Gabriel Pereira (F. Colidio)
K. Viveros 🟥
77'
Dantas 🟨
90+2'
Arthur Dias 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
15
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
0
11
Fouls
17
3
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
Mycael
Dantas
Juan Felipe Aguirre
Arthur Dias
Gastón Benavídez
Jádson
Luiz Gustavo
Lucas Esquivel
Steven Mendoza
Kerwin Vargas
Kevin Viveros
Vasco DA Gama (3-5-2)
Léo Jardim
Gabriel Pereira
Alan Saldivia
Robert Renan
Puma Rodríguez
Alan Lescano
Santiago Sosa
Thiago Mendes
Cuiabano
Andrés Gómez
Brenner
Player Ratings ?
Atletico Paranaense
Steven MendozaF7.7
Lucas EsquivelM7.0
Luiz GustavoM6.9
Vasco DA Gama
Gabriel PereiraD7.6
CuiabanoM7.5
Alan SaldiviaD7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atletico Paranaense edge attack, Vasco DA Gama edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atletico Paranaense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Vasco DA Gama stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama have secured two wins from their last five away outings, whereas Atletico Paranaense have recorded just one victory and suffered a single defeat in their corresponding home sample. Atletico Paranaense have scored in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. The hosts face two confirmed absences, while Vasco DA Gama will be without four players ahead of the fixture. Vasco DA Gama rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Atletico Paranaense hold a slight advantage in attack. Vasco DA Gama won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 11 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Atletico Paranaense's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Atletico Paranaense's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while Vasco DA Gama's implied win probability has risen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Atletico Paranaense unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Atletico Paranaense win as less likely than it did 9 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atletico Paranaense win
Latest market chance 45.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
46.3% → 45.5%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 26.6%
+0.1 pts
Vasco DA Gama win
Latest market chance 27.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.2% → 27.8%
+0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atletico Paranaense
Draw
Vasco DA Gama
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
14th
33
Games Played
32
1.64
Points/Game
1.19
1.52
Goals/Game
1.25
1.21
Conceded/Game
1.53
13.3
Shots/Game
17.4
5.0
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Atletico Paranaense at home (17 matches) vs Vasco DA Gama away (16 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
0.88
1.65
Goals/Game
1.12
1.06
Conceded/Game
1.62
53%
Win Rate
19%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atletico Paranaense
Home form
D
D
W
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Vasco DA Gama
Away form
L
L
W
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atletico Paranaense Wins
2
Draws
1
Vasco DA Gama Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.4
Vasco DA Gama1 – 0Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama2 – 1Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense1 – 0Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense0 – 0Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama0 – 2Atletico Paranaense
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atletico Paranaensevs
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.70
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.50
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.3%→Latest 52.6%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 56.5%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Atletico Paranaense's 10 matches and 5 of Vasco DA Gama's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?